At that time Unix was 20 years old, now it's 50 years old.
Well still be running Unix, or its clones for trademark purposes, in a hundred years. Maybe several hundred. I wonder what other operating systems are likely to have that sort of longevity.
If those two things are true then Unix will still be around I believe. Just like Diesel engines are still around.
For example, this might be the last video game console generation.
Whether it is economically viable remains an open question.
I don't mind betting that the world of 2069 will look a lot more like 2019 than 2019 looks like 1969.
But these are all brawn as oppesed to brain type capabilities. Which have to do with our physical aspect. It is normal that they plateau since the laws of physics set hard limits on these type of parameters. And they are also much more obvious since they directly impact the physical world all around us.
My feeling is these days change is tilted more and more towards the informational aspect of us humans and the world. The quantity of scientific data gathered, books written, new media types, information technology, the internet, genetic engineering, wikipedia all function at the much more subtle level which wouldn't be as immediately obvious to an outside observer, but they actually affect us much closer to our core, because what makes us distinctly human and the source of our power is all about this dimension - which the philosopher Teilhard de Chardain has called the noosphere.
Imagine sending someone from the 1200's to the 1500's. They would probably have less of a shock than the guy sent from the 1900's to today, in terms of how much around them has changed, even though they have traveled more years ahead.
It's something I read in an article at some point, but couldn't find it just now from a quick google search. I feel like it makes sense though. With the pace we're inventing things at, Clarke's 3rd law will kick into effect more frequently: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
Technological advances are never exponential forever. They always follow an S curve and all our technologies are at the top of the S and levelling off. Many of them actually started levelling off decades ago, such as air travel and ground vehicles. Electric cars are substitution not revolution. Reusable rockets are going to get pretty cool though.
But in my opinion that in no way means we will stagnate now. Bar from anything devastating happening, I would assume one is right in looking at the past to assume future development, albeit in a field that's not yet quite apparent. There is no reason to assume there isn't the next S waiting for us at the end of this one, even if you and I cannot really picture it just yet.
To replace them we'd have to see a circumstance where it makes sense to start from scratch and rewrite everything vs. incrementally improve what's already there.
I can't predict the future, but the market forces needed for some kind of new OS to make sense would have to be tremendous. As time passes and we build more and more on top of existing OSs it becomes less and less likely that we'll switch away from them because it will become more and more costly.
Perhaps a state could create a unique OS as a hegemonic strategy. They could make people, companies and other states use it as a pre-condition of participating in their economic sphere. That could provide the incentive to use it even though it would take decades to catch up to existing OSs. China is the only one I can think of that could have a chance at this, though I still think the cost would be too high for them. North Korea would probably love to do it, but it seems unlikely they'd ever be in a position to influence other states to that degree.
The question is why would a state want to build their own new OS? What might China need in an OS that the existing options can not provide?
Indeed, but which kernel?!?
Well, that and getting the rest of the missing syscalls in... But FS perf is what I'm most excited about.
(Android compatibility subsystem for Windows 10 Mobile)