Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections

The first author of this Geophysical Research Letters paper has also made a Twitter thread in layman's language to explain their paper: https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1202271427807678464

Discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21708328

Non-paywalled version here: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha08910q.html