https://towardsdatascience.com/the-bayesian-brain-hypothesis...
So far it seems that it explains quite a lot of data, and many mind illnesses (e.g. many diseases can be thought as the brain under-correcting or over-correcting for the prediction error).
By under-correcting, the brain is not learning enough on its mistakes, which may lead to delusions of superiority (e.g. being stuck in usual habits, or inability to change one's world-view based on new information). On the other hand, when over-correcting, the world may seem unpredictable, frightening - leading to self-doubt, anxiety and negative thoughts.
Being wrong around 15% of the time might actually be the optimal rate for learning... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/failing-study-suc...