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My guess: not going to happen. The vast majority of people in Belarus oppose a state union with Russia. Also the president (Lukaschenko) has nothing to gain from this. Surprisingly he has been very hesitant to give in to various Russian demands, openly criticizing Putin at world stages and in the media.

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Since Russia is subsidizing Belarus, they can start tightening the screws on Lukaschenko politically any time they want.

Belarus is just one military exercise away from Russians taking over. Every time these countries have a big joint military exercise in Belarus there is possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise is over.

>> there is possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise is over.

Why they would do that? Unless you organize a pro-West revolution like in Ukraine. It is possible but making people dirty poor and desperate can take a decade like in the latter case.

That's what the article is about. Most big employers work for Russian market. If Russia stops buying - Belarus doesn't have deep pockets to sustain for years without trade. People most often live from paycheck to paycheck, so if suddenly a lot of them lose their jobs - escalation will be quite rapid.

https://www.uawire.org/russia-and-belarus-to-create-joint-pa...

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