Around the last recession, I had this distinct feeling: that this exuberance is a little too irrational. The press was constantly talking about how great the economy was, and people I knew around me were splurging on things they could in no way afford.

I used to trade domain names at that time, mostly to fund my college. Everyone in my industry was talking about how the value of certain domains will 10x in the next 5 years and other irrational projections.

Maybe its that experience, but I've since maintained a personal theory that a serious recession hits when people least expect it. When there is too much easy credit in the system and business optimism isn't grounded in any fundamentals, that's when you should fear a recession.

Not when everyone is telling you that a recession is just around the corner. Because then you're already more careful in your decision making

Not sure how much of this is founded on economics of course