TOTP isn't vulnerable to porting numbers, so you're safe from that threat.
Is remote desktop compromise less likely than remote phone compromise? Phones tend to sandbox each app, so a single malicious or compromised app cannot take over your phone. Desktops on the other hand allow any app to do essentially anything on your computer. Accidentally open a malicious email attachment and you're done for. Generally I consider machine/phone compromise outside of my threat model.
Is security key theft less likely than phone theft? Also, phones generally require a password or fingerprint or face to unlock, while security keys generally do not (Yubico announced a fingerprint-protected one 18 days ago, but it's not available yet).