Look, I supported sentencing and enforcement reform at least as much anyone, but we can't hide from the facts. It's one thing to say that these facts don't prove a causal relationship to sentencing reform, etc. That's absolutely fair. But it's another to deny or diminish the problems. We can't be defensive, fearful of consequences to reform efforts. If we can criticize the tough on crime crowd for ignoring 20 years of steadily decreasing crime, then we should be prepared to recognize when the numbers don't go our way. Facts aren't for our convenience; they keep us honest and grounded.
[1] See the first slide which includes August, 2019. The second slide with the property crime breakouts end in May, before the regression to the mean.