My years working on black programs
thespacereview.com
thespacereview.com
Parallels to Silicon Valley are easy to find. It's a valid career path: if you want to progress fast, find a hot young area where there are no senior experts and work hard to keep up.
I remember reading that a quantum revolution in computing was just around the corner 12 years (in 2007), and only a month ago has any sort of "breakthrough" happened (referring to Google's "quantum supremacy/breakthrough[0]").
Considering this glacial track record, I'm very skeptical.
[0] https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/29/20937930/google-quantu...
I think you’ll start to see more demand for non-PhDs as the various competing QIS players begin to standardize their architectures and practices.
It needs to be something I've never/barely heard of.
the first i read of him was ~1988 or so in Mondo 2000....
Now he is popping up all over...
(It works for programming languages, too. Hang out in a forum for a relatively-new language like, say, Elixir, and you'll hear gossip about a lot of languages whose communities would describe Elixir as a staid legacy language, that'd never merit a mention here.)
Especially on the lower barrier to entry areas.
Being able to learn things yourself, then learning on the job is more important.
Our competitors to dominance through smart acquisitions, but this came at a fixed linear or super-linear operating cost per unit of growth. We are growing by identifying abstractions, and incorporating the new markets into existing ones.
Their method was the best way to quickly grow a company to a national scale in the 60s, but it comes at the monotonically-increasing costs of internal coordination and duplicate work. Software allows you to grow gracefully, while avoiding those problems as they appear.
As an example, we analyze inbound calls by volume every quarter to identify how we can anticipate user needs, and solve them ahead of time, without requiring a phone call (thereby improving the client's UX and saving operating cost). Every year, we reduce our call volume while simultaneously increasing our client headcount and improving the tools that are at our team's disposal. That kind of iterative optimization isn't possible at the big conglomerates.
Look for industries that haven't figured this out yet, those are the ones where the money will be made; Stripe is a good example of this playing out in finance.
thank you for your explanation! I would love to hear more about your approach. I am looking what to do next in my professional life, and these kind of concepts sound very exciting!
Would you perhaps be willing to have a short conference call, or perhaps, an email exchange?
My email address can be found in my profile.
Cheers!
There are so many industries that aren't going to be 'disrupted' by some fancy new tech. Because they have much more urgent low tech problems to solve first.
I've lost count in the number of startups that want to 'disrupt' agriculture with blockchain, because, you know, who wouldn't want to have their potatoes tracked in a decentralized proof-of-stake ledger? PotatoCoin! But reality is that to store data in a blockchain, you first need data to begin with. Many of the business in agriculture is conducted on a handshake, usually there isn't even paperwork. Also, in many countries agriculture relies on operating in a grey area of tax, just to break a profit. I bet a lot of farmers don't even want a transparent ledger for everyone to see ;-)
Most of us developers don't have the real-life industry experience to remotely understand where the opportunities lie. And we are way to naive to think that we can solve any problem with software.
There was an article recently in a modern farming magazine about how restaurants and downstream consumer organizations and businesses want to use blockchain technology to track where a cow was raised, where it was processed and how, and when it became the hamburger or whatever you're eating so that customers can scan it and feel better about themselves and their choices.
Cool. Super cool technology. That I will never use on my farm because it provides me with absolutely 0 incentive at the start of the stream other than increased overhead. After looking into the technology, there are ways to use that data to track cattle, and ways to use that data to track yield and feed ratios and that sort of thing, but it's not the purpose, and therefore almost impossible to get out of the system. It also would be super easy to game by the large 'family owned' farms (sort of like how they do it now anyway).
And I already do what I need with excel, it's just time consuming. So it's another example of 'BUT IT'S TECHNOLOGY' that just doesn't appeal to me.
For other examples see: automated weed control, most automated irrigation systems, most automated weather and climate tracking systems, and definitely any/all automated feed and livestock management systems.
The one thing you said that I want to push back - from a very US centered perspective - very little farming is done via handshake anymore. Any farmer who is actually able to survive does so by playing the markets, by pushing formal contracts, and by being smarter than that. Nothing on the outgoing side is left to chance anymore, because all of our inputs are based on chance already (weather, performance, yield).
The problem is that stakes are so high that nobody dares to change.
You cannot turn off a running warehouse for some days.
I believe datamigration is mostly where the opportunities are. Because then you can one day flip the switch and start working with new software while having the same 'state' of the old software.
Unless you game the system, that is. If you ever see a "hero", they're either incompetent but putting in extra effort or setting up the events.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/18/18311287/ai-upscaling-alg...
There's a few other interesting technologies that add a lot of content to a game for relatively small investments; think physics and destruction engines, animation technology (iirc there is something developed by EA's sports games branch that can generate intermediate animations for smooth animation transitions), world generation (height maps), etc.
> Instead, I had managers old enough to be my father...
This...
> ... an attitude that wanting to move around within the company was "disloyal" to my current management.
... is bad management and bad company culture and are the reasons you get older managers who are inflexible and just riding out a paycheck. Those are the areas to fixate on and if you see it, leave. Nobody should have to work under those conditions. Working for an older manager shouldn't (and rarely is), in and of itself, be a red flag.
The old automotive company I work for released a "strongly recommended" schedule of different responsibilities that an engineer should have held for what time to be considered a strong candidate for promotion. There was a similar document I heard about for going from supervisor to manager. Combined these schedules said that no one would ever work their way up from entry level to department head. Ever. Therefore the only way to get there is outside of the official system via office politics, and not being honest about that is pretty dysfunctional on its own. That said, a symptom of that is the number of supervisors and managers who have 30+ years in...
Exactly. I was too brief with that point, but the issue is first-line managers, in some cases, having more experience than I had years of life at that point. It's an environment that seems to condemn people to life as a minor cog in a huge machine, where your opinions aren't respected and you have no hope of making it into any sort of management responsibility.
Based on those two examples alone, I estimate that the most secretive programs are 15 years more technologically advanced than we are in the public domain.
AI and Quantum Computing come to mind as likely focus areas in addition to those already mentioned.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Scout [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Model_147
On the other hand, governments can throw a lot of money at an interesting topic. See John Clark's Ignition! for rocket fuels.
His takeaway is exactly that, if you aren't budget bound, think of what the future would be 15 years from day and start implementing that.
Tech is fad driven - look at all the big data projects by companies that don't need them.
Java was released in 1995. Compared to the state of the art back then, I believe it was a significant advancement. There was plain C with all its shortcomings, C++, but in a much worse state than today, and then the dynamic bunch (Python, Tcl/Tk?).
There's no doubt Java had major issues, many of which were only ameliorated with Java 2 and later, and some remain today. But on the other hand it was memory safe, statically typed, with much simpler semantics, machine independence, Unicode support etc. pp. I believe Java overall meant progress.
I'm not sure the advertising budget perspective is that salient. The main competitor for Sun at the time was Microsoft (with C++ and their Windows platform), who had a very well working marketing / developer relations / etc operation going as well.
Performance was avoidably bad in some parts of the libraries.
I recall a major rewrite of some product being started then killed because performance sucked (surely much better now, but things took far too long to change).
Memory behaviour was not fixed until java 5:
"The original Java memory model, developed in 1995, was widely perceived as broken, preventing many runtime optimizations and not providing strong enough guarantees for code safety"
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java_memory_model)
I'd also like to add Brinch Hansen's heartfelt lament
"If programmers no longer see the need for interference control [in java's threading] then I have apparently wasted my most creative years developing rigorous concepts which have now been compromised or abandoned by programmers"
Per Brinch Hansen, Java's Insecure Parallelism - SIGPLAN Notices, April 1999
> statically typed
with type holes for arrays
> with much simpler semantics
yep, too simple. IMO it relied too much on the programmer. Generics took too long to appear also.
> Unicode support
Broken cos they didn't read the spec properly. It has problem with the BOM on UTF8 which has bitten me (can't remember the details, think it was this https://stackoverflow.com/questions/1835430/byte-order-mark-...)
The advertising budget was what drove things, not common sense. Java could have been good but it was designed badly and badly oversold.
I'm not so sure, you're comparing it only to C,C++ or Tcl/Tk but what about Ada? Smalltalk? Lisp? Objective-C?
Plus Java's standard library was full of bugs for a looonnng time: they focused on new features instead of fixing it.. I've experienced "Java can't print" myself while Java's hype was going full force..
Ada compilers were bloody expensive.
Modula-2, Delphi, VB, Oberon, Modula-3,..., were great, but they were either only available commercially, or OS specific.
Java was given away as free beer, with a batteries included standard library and with less hurdles than trying to write portable C or pre-C++98 across all platforms that existed in the 90's.
That alone made us try it out,
On my university, the computing department changed all the compiler design and distributed computing classes to Java, without Sun paying anything to a tiny Portuguese university.
But a well written java server-side application (so something that doesn't need to be started very often but generally just idles until it's contacted by clients) is as fast or faster than anything you were likely to be using for a couple decades after its introduction.
"were"? I don't know.
Smalltalk was neat, but never caught on, possibly due to the lack of free implementations and the difficulty of integrating with anything else. (The original prototype of the OS/2 3.0/Warp UI was done in Digi-something Smalltalk. (Waves feebly from IBM.))
Lisp, in particular Common Lisp, was very popular in certain areas, but again died out. Possibly another combination of lack of free implementations, integration difficulty, and sheer difference from the alternatives. (Scheme. Sigh. The cleanest language design ever. But no single OO design when that hype train was at full speed. Plus, parentheses, which well Common Lisp had already poisoned.)
Guy Steele said that Java dragged the industry halfway to Lisp, if that means anything.
(forked from Eiffel in 1990, unlike Eiffel it was free and open-source)
Authors claimed it was as fast as C++.
I learned about it on a Dr. Dobbs article and that was about it.
As for performance, Eiffel was already quite fast, because while it used a VM for development (MELT), AOT compilation was done via system compilers, with support for generics and value types from the beginning.
It was also one of the first OOP languages to support non-nullable references.
EDIT: This was the Sather article I referred to. https://www.drdobbs.com/tools/the-sather-programming-languag...
I don't remember any particular tooling, and the language was crap (Meyer was better at hype than language/compiler design).
IIRC sather was eiffel with the subtyping holes fixed. Bertrand Meyer allowed holes in eiffel subtyping (which sather disallowed) which he (meyer) was sure he could deal with, but eventually they proved intractable IIRC.
My boss eventually abandoned eiffel, and let the eiffel company know why. It was not an enjoyable experience for either me nor him.
This is not surprising, though, considering that the US are the most technologically and scientifically advanced country and that they have been outspending everyone else by orders of magnitude in military (and related domains) research for about 80 years.
more this, and less "tools beyond anyone else's reach".
A fair number of people go to work with these groups to "check the box" that they've done it. They know who's at NSA, or CIA, or DARPA. Because they spent 2-5 years with them inside the box. There's a tremendous amount of self-confidence that comes out of a successful turn at one of these places. You know you know.
You hit the nail on the head in explaining this dynamic, but I hate the fact it exists in the first place, in game dev or IC. It also exists with US special operations, as another way to sort out anyone who isn't a true believer.
Fair, you might say. I just think it's dumb a Google/Netflix/Facebook engineer working on some boring cog in their company's infrastructure gets paid a top-of-market $250k+, while an engine programmer working on an AAA title makes half that, or a firmware engineer working on offensive cyber payloads makes half that, or a special operations solider makes half that.
Maybe it's just market demand: boring stuff is paid better since everyone wants to do something exciting. But I think it's also a filter, and a lot of these places know that.
It’s more interesting that it leaked out that they crashed one of said helicopters because they ignored the mission planning advice they’d been given. How embarrassing!
Who is "they"? (The pilots?) Which advice was ignored?
> The crash of the Blackhawk may have been, at least in part, caused by the aerodynamic deficiencies introduced to the airframe by the stealth technology add-ons.[321]
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Helic...
Yes, this is from a video about cattle mutilation, but whatever.
On the other hand AI and quantum computing are generally useful and require novel breakthroughs, so I would expect a smaller gap or no gap.
I love reading about space history. And the part of the article that hit home was the floor with 200+ engineers working as a team. That engineering led culture is giving way to financial dominance.
The Long-Forgotten Flight That Sent Boeing Off Course: A company once driven by engineers became driven by finance
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing...
I don't know enough about aerospace to really follow this (or even to know what a "programmer" is in this context), but it certainly sounds strikingly similar to Boeing's use of ad-hoc engineering solutions to avoid expensive retraining of pilots.
Perhaps technical corporate culture has always been a complicated relationship between finance and engineering. Triumphantly successful projects tend to make everyone forget about the tension, while miserable failures lead to more introspection.
Yes generally, there are people in the government using technology well more advanced than anything available to the general public. However it's only a handful of people that are using it. Much of the high cost comes from these systems being at such a small scale.
Um, yeah, no. Pretty much all experimental QC students capable of doing the work are accounted for. The theorists who don't hustle mostly can't get jobs, with good reason: it's mostly malarkey.
You'd think if there were some blackops AI center of genius out there, at least one of them would have a job at Facebook making $2m a year or at a hedge fund gobbling up the order books. There are none.
Neither the predator nor stealth choppers were particularly surprising. You can watch documentaries on youtube about stealth choppers like the RA-66 Comanche, and drones were in wide, boasted-of use in Vietnam.
FWIIW I did a little consulting work for SBIR places; most of the procurement officers got their ideas from shitty science fiction. I'm pretty sure we'll eventually get all the dumb things from Aliens no matter how impractical and useless in actual combat they are.
Perhaps they were TOO successful, and their AI escaped, eating the researchers on its way out. There's no way for us to know..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_Kennen
A few years back an unused mirror assembly that was near identical to Hubble was declassified.
https://www.americaspace.com/2012/06/06/top-secret-kh-11-spy...
Consider that the NRO very likely has at least a dozen superior to Hubble spy satellites orbiting as we speak.
The example they used was that license plates are vertical so to read them the satellite can't be directly above the car so it's actually a much further distance and greater magnification is necessary because of the atmosphere and the distortion of reading something at an angle.
There are some interesting things you can do with indirect light, but so far they don't help with this.
https://www.wired.com/story/trump-tweeted-a-sensitive-photo-...
There are times when you get through all the security checks and see the thing, and see "they still have one of those running?" The famous Blue Cube in Sunnyvale, the USAF's satellite control center, was running 1960s technology well into the late 1980s.
Now it's a parking lot for Google buses.
The famous Blue Cube in Sunnyvale, the USAF's satellite control center
I just got off westbound 237 at Mathilda an hour ago for the first time in years. It's so strange to see that entire side of the road leveled in the background.Blue Cube: gone. Lockheed building 101: gone. Lockheed building 102: gone. Five years of my career without a single physical artifact left.
This sounds like it would be an incredibly satisfying job, especially given that there was constant variation in what he had to build
At today's circuits number of layers, speeds and frequencies it's impossible to do it by hand.
Sure, you could train your average engineer to use Cadence/Mentor, etc but it's usually the design engineer that does capture and PCB routing.
That as much as anything here seemed ... wasteful? cruel? Unlikely to fool anyone?
I wonder if forever still applies...
It is interesting to read for sure,but he does say in that he promised not to talk about "forever".
I have been given similar talks.
Even if part of what you work on is declassified, it does not release you from the "forever" clause.
I assume he has requested and been given permisson to talk freely about it.
I don't assume he has to be, and it's good that people who are that old aren't afraid to talk about what they did then.
It's 50 years ago. To compare, General Groves was the military leader of a whole Manhattan Project published a whole book with the comparable amount of detail not even 20 years after the project, in 1962 ''Now It Can Be Told'':
I believe this is it: https://www.c-span.org/video/?321255-1/discussion-cias-coron...
What does "develop full scale patterns, or drawings, of complex shapes" mean in the context that this is different from drawing blueprints like the draftsmen?
https://www.amazon.com/Radar-Man-Personal-History-Stealth/dp...
Good tutorial on using one from a channel that focuses on the subject: