Hacker News Reader

Comment by Hitton | Hacker News Reader

That's ridiculous. If anything, scientists overestimated the climate change. There were predictions of climate change displacing 50 million refugees by the year 2010, northern snow cap should have already melted and hurricanes should have become more common, but none of that occurred.

View on HN

Please cite the scientific articles (not newspapers) making such claims. I don't think there is any credible report of these allegations.

I couldn’t find that specific one, though I did find this article from 2007 predicting an ice-free Arctic summer by 2013...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

Edit: Also I just found a brand new article predicting it’ll actually happen by 2044:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1205850/Climate-chang...

I wonder what the prediction will be by 2044.

Not really. That's a well known headline taken out of context. A model predicted ice free summers by 2013, and the article includes two scientists discussing that they think the model overcooks the prediction, but both thinking it will come far sooner than previously believed. e.g. the first

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."

and from the second

"A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that's what our models were telling us. But as we've seen, the models aren't fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate.

"My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of."

The Daily Express are a credible source for nothing since their purchase by Desmond.

Not OP but you can find the 50 million climate refugees claim in the report of the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development on page 20: the map itself is titled "Figure SR-P2. 50 million climate refugees by 2010" [1]. That report was backed by UNDP,UNEP, World Bank, the WHO - most people would count the report as credible, certainly more so than a newspaper article or opinion piece.

[1]: https://www.weltagrarbericht.de/fileadmin/files/weltagrarber...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com