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Comment by alexcnwy | Hacker News Reader

I have no doubt that deepfakes will be impossible to tell apart from real videos (at least to a human) in 3-5 years.

In 10 years I think we’ll be able to generate entire movies programmatically.

I agree with the deep fakes thing wrt video, but I’m still not convinced by the ability of current (and near future) ML models to generate meaningful written content like a film script. The GPT-2 stuff I’ve seen has mostly been sensible English, but I’ve never seen it actually generate a coherent story. What do you see are the steps between where we are now and where we’ll be in 10 years?

"meaningful written content like a film script"

Award winning, agreed, no. Good enough for a special effects blockbuster or pr0n or stereotypical teen comedy or date night romcom, probably good enough.

Ironically the cheapest part of a movie right now seems to be the script / storyline, and some kind of Amazon Turk with more flexible morality might write better than we get now versions of special effects demo reels (aka action flicks) or pr0n or teen comedies via the magic of extensive A/B testing and population sampling.

I'm hereby patenting an idea or company that let's you input a story, a use some gui to modify the looks of each character, and let the tool this company provides, create a porn to your liking - per your provided input.

Even if it's in drawing/hentai form and not 'real' people.

Big bucks to be made!

Pixar make films programmatically today.

So it exists. Just expensive atm like lab meat.

To write a script you need full general AI smarter than humans. So not what's being talked about.

A script is tiny. You can write one in a day for a 2 hour movie. It might be crap, but if you push a button and can watch it, you can iterate quickly. This is not within 10 years though.

Forget generating full movies, we will hit by a tidal wave of "personalized advertising" where our faces and that of anyone we know will be the spokespersons with their DeepFaked voices as well pitching erection drugs, high interest credit cards, gambling vacations, and other high profit rip offs.

I think they'll become ineffective, sort of like phising emails before it hits a tidal wave kind of storm and they would be limited to sketchy sites.

> I think they'll become ineffective, sort of like phising emails before it hits a tidal wave kind of storm and they would be limited to sketchy sites.

Phishing emails are incredibly effective. Thats why they continue to exist. Just because you don't fall for them doesn't mean millions of people every day don't. These are the largest source of stolen account credentials and credit cards.

Luckily in Europe we have the GDPR in place to protect us against that.

Or at least generate new movies from an existing one. So instead of a remake of Back to the Future, we'll re-generate one using AI actors based around what the computer knows about the originals.

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