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Comment by jmpman | Hacker News Reader

At $100/kWh, a 200kwh battery pack is just $20k. I expect the motor is approximately $5k. An F150 runs anywhere from $28k-$70k. Which means that the base F150 without gas engine is around $23k. Add in the electric, and you’re up to $48k - still well in the middle of the F150 price range. The electric version would have incredible torque and reasonable range.

Even if the gas version gets 20mpg @ $3/gal, over 200k miles, you’re spending $30k on gas. Electric is likely 1/3 the cost, saving $20k over the lifetime. This puts the electric truck on par with the lowest end F150 for TCO.

We are at the inflection point for battery prices driving TCO wins across major new sectors. The conversion rate to EV will accelerate.

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A brand new combustion engine can be bought from JEGS or Summit Racing for less than $4,000 USD.

A used engine can be had for less than $1,000, and it often comes attached to a car if you are not interested in adding it to a different vehicle.

Electric cars are really cool, but I don't think hundreds of millions of Americans will be running out to switch until maybe 11 years from now, which is how long it took the USA to go from "nobody has a smart phone" to "everyone has a smart phone".

Smart phones had to wait for better wireless connection tech, electric vehicles have to similarly wait for infrastructure improvements. Once that happens, it’ll be just as overnight as it felt with phones.

That's a good point- the revolution could have happened in 1980 if the tech was there.

I think it still is much longer away before mass adoption happens

If politicians have have their way, business will be driven out of the US because of over taxation and we will never get to this point.

Ok, a combustion engine for an F150 plus transmission is $3k? I’m off by $2k? That doesn’t really change the overall equation much.

Just pointing out that an electric pickup is viable with today’s battery prices. The inflection point for major changes is just around the corner, and if batteries ever hit $50/kWh, the equation will be even more compelling.

Pickup trucks are sold to consumers, but the business economics drive the design. The F150 is the lightest version on a platform that scales up to crewcabbed 350 diesel dualies sold by the fleetload out in the Permian Basin. Sold by the dozens to utility companies. Into the timber industry. Here and there cattle ranchers, feedlots, farmers. Building contractors.

The cost of fuel? There's markup passed along to customers with the risk of higher fuel prices eating into profits under an existing contract. The cost of electricity? Planning overhead and the risk of failure to meet contract terms. In business, non-performance can evaporate the $20k lifetime savings in a year, or a month, or even a day.

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