Does Apple have enough clout to change the landscape? Will Apple and Google dominate this space through a consortium?
Problem 1 - A majority of the population doesn't own a smartphone.
Problem 2 - Assuming the that problem 1 doesn't matter, Apple doesn't have enough "smart" devices to hold enough clout. Even Google + Apple's smart devices wouldn't hold enough clout. You would have to get Nokia, RIM, WP7, Android, and iPhone on board before vendors would want to invest in new payment technologies.
What may happen is that an open standard will be set for all smart devices which let us connect to our already existing Visa, MasterCard, or PayPal accounts. It simply doesn't make sense to create an entirely new payment system when there are already tons of them out there...but I could be very very wrong. Apple is known for creating clutch products that everyone thought was impossible :)