Kinect is fastest-selling consumer electronics device in history
venturebeat.com
venturebeat.com
Now Microsoft needs to leverage the success of the Kinect to further expand beyond the PC. An obvious direction is to use the Kinect to gain additional market share with the Xbox, since the Kinect is currently designed as a UI for this device. But I think focusing exclusively on the Xbox is a mistake. The Xbox (and other consoles and set-top boxes) may soon get enveloped and displaced by other technologies, particularly connected TVs.
I suggest that Microsoft leverage the Kinect as an element in a coherent connected TV strategy. Connected TVs are just emerging, and there is still time to match the developments of Google, Apple, and others in this space. To enter the connected TV market, Microsoft needs to quickly develop a connected TV OS, forge relationships with app developers, and acquire or partner with content providers (e.g., Netflix, OnLive.com). This is all feasible given Microsoft's significant software expertise and its existing relationships (e.g., with Netflix, game developers, etc).
Microsoft has been struggling to gain leadership in markets outside the PC. For instance, it's behind in smartphones, tablets, and portable media players. The Kinect could give Microsoft the edge to dominate the emerging connected TV market. The technology strikes me as an excellent UI for the 10-foot viewing experience, especially for interactive media. It can then leverage success in this market to gain further ground in related connected device markets. I think there is a significant opportunity here. Thoughts?
Microsoft (from my understanding) doesn't have exclusive rights to the Kinect tech, just for it's use in certain applications, but with the relationship that Microsoft has PrimeSense (the company which created much of the kinect technology), I'm sure groups outside of just the Entertainment division are looking at ways to leverage the tech and relationship.
The brilliant hacking that is going on with kinect show just how valuable this tech can be in different uses. I'm sure microsoft will be leveraging much of this for ideas. Hopefully they'll be getting into the acquisition game and picking up some of these hackers to continue to create great experiences with kinect on platforms other than xbox.
Chatting to a 'Softie who was complaining about this specific problem. Specifically that they're only interested in Kinect applications which will sell Xboxes, because that's how the ownership is organised. I didn't query too much further, it all sounded too painful...
I've got a connect, I like it a lot, but I'm completely at a loss for how it would be useful while watching TV. And don't say something about replacing the TV remote with gestures. That's just stupid. Nobody wants the volume on their TV to suddenly shoot up just because they accidentally flung their hand in the wrong direction.
If the Kinect gets a lot better and more accurate it could be a good interface for controller a TV connected browser or some kind of apps displayed on a TV screen. But right now navigating game menus with the Kinect is rather frustratingly wonky.
And: Software? Yes, software. It's playing an increasingly large role in all consumer electronics. When I look at the average TV's kafkaesque OSD menus I have very little faith that they won't fuck up something more complicated. Even if Android develops a big screen offshoot, most TV makers will fuck up the implementation, if the majority of Android phones and tablets is anything to go by. The mindset of the hardware makers still is such that the software is an afterthought. It's increasingly becoming the make or break component.
The current lot of "smart" TVs certainly reflects that attitude - they can't even get web browsing right on a most basic level.
This gives Apple, Boxee, etc. a chance to establish themselves in that market with boxes that are separate from the TV itself. Game consoles are in that category as well, except they're expensive and (still) have a "gamer" stigma associated with them. I understand the Xbox's non-game UI is actually pretty good, so Microsoft could probably release a cheap Xbox without the expensive CPU, GPU and DVD drive, which does everything but play (AAA) games. Extend XBLA to non-game apps. And for god's sake don't call it Xbox, that will transfer the stigma.
Btw, Sony will probably miss this opportunity because their TV division is separate from the PlayStation one. And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!)
Nintendo is certainly apart from the rest of the herd. I feel like they are positioning themselves as a "social" gaming company. I don't mean "social" as in Facebook, but more like those experiences people had playing NES games with their friends next to them on the couch.
Their platform encourages multiplayer games to be played on the same screen. The N64 was the first console to have four controller ports (the SNES had an expander peripheral as well). Their Pokemon games promote sharing and playing with friends over ad-hoc wifi. They have eschewed standard support for a headset, making multiplayer-online games (SSMB:M and Mario Kart comes to mind) like playing against more challenging AI. Super Mario Galaxy 1/2 are great games, and are made even greater by allowing two people on the same couch to work together.
I'm certain that the company understands the importance of the internet (the Wii store is nothing to write home about, but it's certainly good enough). I think that they've decided that internet gaming is not a place that they want to be (for better or worse).
Net result, I actually run a basic low-power PC alongside my TV, 99% used just to provide 'connected TV' services. Works very nicely and avoids compatibility issues because it's absolutely just another PC so the standard services such as the BBC iPlayer, YouTube and Justin.TV all work fine.
After the first few times you play with the Kinect, you stop thinking "Holy crap, I'm waving my hands, and the computer responds", and you simply start playing the games. On Dance Central, the interface is quite seamless. I'm eagerly looking forward to thinks like fightings games, although I'm going to have to get in much better shape. That is, in fact, my only hesitation that I have with the device: I get tired a lot faster playing games on the device.
I've heard rumors that they are going to be releasing an SDK for Win7, and the Win8 is going to have drivers built in. I'll be first in line to buy an extra Kinect per PC if that happens.
There's still a ton of room for refinement, and the UI/UX designers are going to have a lot of room to learn, grow and play with a new interface, but as version 1.0 of a new way to interact with a computer, I think it kicks ass.
Well, some fitness focused developer might read this and think "mission accomplished."
I think there's tremendous potential for a combination of real-time strategy and fighting games with this interface. Already, fighting games are about deploying "moves" which play out in a certain time frame. Fighting games which deploy moves based on forms from martial arts are an obvious first step. Increasing strategy elements and departing from close correspondence to hand-to-hand combat would open up an entire new genre of games. Perhaps adapt the rules of Magic the Gathering to real-time play and parameterize the strength of cards according to the correct execution of forms from martial arts? I think the result could look like the magic battles from "Big Trouble in Little China."
Obviously, this is a completely new era of menu design, and it will probably settle down soon to a standard-ish menu design, but I wish the game publishers would resist the temptation to come up with whacky UI metaphors just because they can.
This sort of wording was what lead me to believe the Kinect could actually track hands. I tried three games, and none of them tracked my fingers or the rotation of my hands at all.
It might not be down to the finger level yet (I don't know) but it can certainly recognise hands to a great level of precision. The Kinect Sports bowling game, for example, is very accurate at tracking the path of your hand.
I suspect many games fake it in this fashion: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWbLOFGSEDo
edited to add: quote from someone on the Kinect Sports team:
And while designers admit that, unlike Wii MotionPlus bowling, the game can't track spin based upon a twist of my wrist—instead you exaggerate the motion within the entire scope of your swing—the flexibility keeps me immersed.
http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-xbox-360-kinetic-is...
That's within about 10% of the number of iPads Apple moved during the same period. That seems pretty extraordinary for a consumer electronics product that's over five years old. Considering the additional sale of 8 million Kinects during the same period, the combined revenue number would appear to be in the same ballpark as those of the iPad (~$400-$600 per unit times 7 million units).
This might be the fastest selling first 60 days for a new product, but it's an upgrade to an already popular platform.
What are you high on? Of course cell phones and smartphones belong to the consumer electronics category.
In Comments
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When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead
of calling names. E.g. "That is an idiotic thing to
say; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is
2, not 3."
"I would've thought that iPhones do belong to the consumer electronics category. Could you explain otherwise?"
Such an open question tends to foster constructive discussion.
Your point needs answering, but I suggest there are better ways to make it.
When I first hooked it up and put in the sports game there's a definite "holy shit" moment when you realize that moving to your left and right and aiming your kicks in the soccer game actually works. You can take two or three steps to the left, around a defender and then kick the ball with the appropriate foot, in the air or on the ground, etc and it works, well. As someone who writes software for a living it was a feeling I haven't had with a hardware/software combo in a long time.
On the other hand there are parts of the experience that just aren't there yet. One of parts that seemed to have the most potential was the 10 foot interface - controlling ESPN and your dashboard without ever touching a controller. Unfortunately this just isn't very good. Its finicky and much less efficient than just using a controller. I tried it for a few days before going back to a normal controller or the occasional voice command. To me - this is the part of the experience that needs the most work.
I can easily see the Kinect being a revolutionary technology as it evolves and improves - it already is one for games, but its not quite there yet in my opinion.
I assume it's average sales over a period of time, but who decides on the period? 1 week, 1 month, 2 months or 1 year?
assuming all these 8 million were sold to consumers (and not just 'in the channel'), then that's a bit over 133k/day which, while still a massive amount, is still less than what the iPhone 4 is selling
I'm not trying to downplay these figures, just saying if you're going to award yourself an accolade like that, you need to be able to specify how you measured it
From what I've seen the kinect is very popular with casual gamers and non-traditional gamers, typically adults.
But, so far, the games for Kinect look dull. I'm waiting for the equivalent of Resident Evil 4 on the Wii, which is one of the most enjoyable gaming experiences I've had in ages. Sports and fitness and dance games are fun, and I have bought some of those kinds of games on the Wii, but I don't really feel they justify adding more junk to my house. Hell, if they'd come out with another credible RE title, or some other really high quality shooter, I'd buy it. But, the Wii hardware just isn't up to spec for modern games.
So, yeah, I agree with you. I don't think Kinect is hard core gamers, just like hard core gamers didn't necessarily buy Wii.
What do you mean by "teen hipsters"?
... who don't own Xboxes ;-)
[Not that there's much to "hack" -- all you have to do is open up streams on the thing. It just took someone to replay the initialization and grok the stream format.]
Again, it is phenomenal technology, I do not mean to demean it on a technical level, and it is still a great achievement, but it seems a bit sensationalist to me when they laud a peripheral like it is a standalone device when in this case, the high sales volume can be largely attributed to the existing consumer device on which it piggybacks to inflate sales. Just my thoughts though.
And as someone addicted to Minecraft I have to think that kinect controls forcing you to make swinging full body motions to dig would provide quite a workout.
(think robocop, where he enters the warehouse and targets all the thugs really quickly)
Given the Israeli company that created the kinnect - and all the autonomous robots it has already been mounted to, this is not far off.