I will make a public prediction that after one year of Manifest V3 actually shipping to users in mainline Chrome:
- Assuming that Manifest V3's declarative API is not significantly changed from its current implementation.
- If you visit each of the top 10 publishers in the US (including open publishing platforms like Twitter/Facebook/Youtube)
- If you compare Chrome and Firefox, each with the most-recommended ad-blocking/tracker-blocking extensions on their equivalent web stores installed (currently Ublock Origin, but we'll leave it open. "Most recommended" means that among technical users, this extension is the most commonly recommended. There's a little ambiguity here, but not sure how to narrow it.).
- Firefox will block more web trackers (65% likelyhood).
- Firefox will block more visible ads and popups (55% likelyhood).
There are a couple of reasons why I feel comfortable making those two predictions:
- Twitter and Facebook both try really hard to get around adblockers, and Firefox will be more likely to be able to combat their strategies in the future.
- Extensions like Privacy Badger will already have a more difficult time working in Manifest V3, so there's potential for new adblocking strategies to develop in Firefox that can't be ported.
- Safari made similar changes, and it's already less effective than Firefox at adblocking, so it seems reasonable to guess that Chrome will follow the same path.
- Properly configured, Firefox is already better than Chrome at blocking web-trackers, and I think Firefox will roll those changes out by default to ordinary users before Chrome does.
There are a few reasons why I'm hedging my bets:
- The advertising market is volatile, and might change significantly in the next year (privacy laws, etc...) This is unlikely, but not so unlikely that I can completely discount it.
- Chrome has research teams working on some interesting privacy strategies. I think it's mostly just talk and they won't do much of significance in a year, but I can't completely discount it.
- A mass exodus to Firefox could force Chrome to adapt Manifest V3 to be more open. This is also unlikely, but again, I can't completely discount it.
- And just general uncertainty, because the longer out you predict the more uncertainty you should introduce.
55% and 65% seem like very low numbers, but I think they're a relatively bold prediction. If Firefox and Chrome are blocking basically identical numbers of trackers/ads, that doesn't count as a successful prediction. I'm not going to be pedantic about, "Chrome randomly saw one more ad on exactly one website." Right now, I consider Chrome and Firefox to be equal in terms of adblocking capabilities. So even a 50% guess would be saying, "there's a one-in-two chance that something changes and Firefox will just be an objectively better browser for adblocking."