I don't think it's untill you get to the NN based models that they start treating time as a first-class component in the model.
* If I'm wrong please explain why instead of downvoting
I don't think it's untill you get to the NN based models that they start treating time as a first-class component in the model.
* If I'm wrong please explain why instead of downvoting
Treating time as a first-class component really just means to factor in the absolute point in time into the models at training time. This only makes sense if the absolute time changes properties of the distribution that cannot be accounted for with regular transformations. If that's the case, then we assume that these changes cannot be modeled, and are thus either random or follow a complicated systematic we can't grasp. In the first case, a NN wouldn't improve either, in the second case, we either need to always use the full history of the time series to make a prediction, or hope that a complex NN like LSTM might capture the systematic.
In any case, I think one of the more compelling reasons to use NN is to not have to do preprocessing. The trade-off is that you end up with a complicated solution compared to the six or so easy-to-understand parameters a SARIMA model might give you. And the latter even might give you some interpretable intuition for the behavior of the process.
They're bad at prediction for the past several m1-m4 time series tournament for univariate. The best one for m4 is a combination of NN and traditional statistical regression (time series) but it is often deem too tailor to the data.
And I don't think differencing out the trend, season, etc... means we're treating the time component as second class. It's just that stationary data is what we know the most currently. There is GARCH/ARCH method too. The nonstationary methods aren't used as often and from the tournaments the current set of time series are the best so far.
So I think this comment is misleading.
There is also longitudinal analysis, survival analysis, etc... and they all keep time in mind.