I'm not sure where to find numbers about the increase in lung cancer after smoking for only 15 years, but I know most studies look at people who have been smoking for more like 30 or 50 years...
Another problem they're dealing with is that we talk about vaping being one thing - in reality there are hundreds of companies with their own solutions. Of course there are some similarities in products and in the last few years Juul has come to dominate the US market, but other products (both the devices and the liquids) are of murky origin and quality. I was recently reading a study of a scientist looking into some devices and they found some contaminants that they didn't expect to be present at all that had no reason being there other than a use of cheap/incorrect/mistaken materials
Source: various, I've been researching tobacco control broadly for the last ~5 months as part of a project, if anyone is interested I can pull together some of the more interesting reports I've read
All early evidence is showing vaping is far safer... even 2nd-hand smoke with vaping is way safer (no evidence of transfer via 2nd-hand smoke during vaping tests meanwhile cigarette smoke lingers around and hurts people).
There was a reason this was a big deal because it was the first time showing a direct connection to being dangerous and now its again pointing back to a small subset of THC pens and those in the business of hysteria are trying to cover their bases.