The Big Problem with Wealth Taxes
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Suppose we cut their budget by 50%, it's possible they've just been wasting money and now they'd make $8 for every $1 in their budget. Great! Suppose we double their budget. If they don't do anything differently they'll make only $2 for every $1 in their budget. etc etc.
There must be some component of their budget that is the part of the IRS that goes after potentially fraudulent tax returns, and presumably increasing or decreasing it will have a yield effect, but your figures have zero to suggest what that is or where the point of diminishing returns may be.
Broadly speaking, context-free numbers that don't actually imply anything (maybe more to the point cannot imply anything without more information) should be viewed with suspicion. :/
more revenue from better enforcement is not only logical, it has been the conclusion of several reports from various agencies. the suggestion of twofold increase in revenue collection from half the budget is a farce.
I can't imagine how complicated a billionaire's tax returns are with an army of accountants.
I don’t think it’s immoral or particularly hazardous to democracy for individuals to amass a large amount of wealth in their life time.
The danger is when people then pass down these massive stores of wealth to their children and grandchildren who have done nothing to earn it, and yet will be able to use it to distort the political system for their personal gain or simply sit idle while accruing more wealth through rents and interest.
Wealthy people should be able to pass down no more wealth to their kids than would be needed for them to live a decent lifestyle without needing to work, or to continue a family business of reasonable size for another generation, but no more.
It is when the political system runs entirely on money and one rich elderly person can have a huge influence on public opinion.
Then, I'd argue, the root problem is with the political system itself.
Warren estimates her wealth tax will generate $2.75 trillion over the same time period. I’m skeptical she’ll hit that target but it’s still many times greater.
The Atlantic says Medicare for all would cost $34 trillion over 10 years.
The Walton family is a good case study.
So heirs are still gonna heir, for the most part.
"Large" is hard to represent when it's multiple orders of magnitude more than the righest we can relate to. $27b in rolls of quarters put end-to-end is enough to go around the entire earth.
I think an Elephant is "large" compared to a human.
The size of any continent is already a lot more than "large" compared to a person.
Here, "large" is more like comparing the diameter of Jupiter to your own height (80 million times the average person). That adjective doesn't quite do it justice.
And no, you don't get out of that wealth tax by renting. Renters are paying their landlords property taxes as part of each months rent check.
Given that, a 2% tax on billionaire wealth doesn't seem unreasonable. Shouldn't their wealth tax burden be the same as the middle class? Yes it would be complicated but not nearly as complicated as assessing the value of millions of homes in the US (and commercial property, vacate land, etc) and sending out a yearly property tax bill, handling appeals and then collecting.
Turns out it is not straightforward to estimate what every asset in a country is worth.
So no adding together all wealth, but tax the value of real estate instead of the rental income. Tax market cap of public corporations instead of their profit. Tax cars, boats and business jets. Tax bonds and other securities on their value instead of revenue. Etc. All these ibdividual taxes are going to have issues to be sorted out before implementing, bit I argue that as individual taxes, the issues are way easier to solve than for one generic wealth tax.
Say you have a 100 acre farm[1] valued at $100 and produces $10 of goods annually. If you start taxing on the $100, no one is going to pay $100 for the farm once a wealth tax is implemented as now they are taking on tax liability that previously didn’t exist.
[1]for the sake of argument and illustration, were ignoring property taxes which are like wealth taxes.
Besides, for residential property, stemming the unsustainable increase in value is also a desireable goal to make it more affordable.
Corporate/bureaucratic governance is arguably more prone to doing the sorts of bloodless cost/benefit analysis that can push productivity, while smaller family farms might be more focused on just getting through the day-to-day work.
That plus a lot of productivity gains come from returns to scale and logistical capacity that you need to be at a certain size to realize. It's just out of reach for smaller entities.
Implementation dependent.
You may use "net worth": so if you have a $1,000,000 property but a $600,000 mortgage, your net worth $400K. Many of the proposals for the US start "higher" ($32M for Sanders, $50M for Warren) which probably would not hit a good portion of the population.
Yes. That's almost like magic. You get cheaper properties, the property tax revenue is used to reduce your other taxes so your net income does not decrease (on average, of course). So you actually get more money to spend otherwise than into your mortgage. Almost like alchemy. Turning taxes to wealth...
(Of course you can argue that western democracies are kleptocracies by default and all taxes just disappear to the pockets of the thieves and you get no benefit from them, but I personally do not consider that as a feasible starting point for a reasonable discussion)
They don’t soak the rich in quite as targeted a fashion though (aside from the estate taxes).
Another French economist is 'consulting' for / advising Elizabeth Warren:
* https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-frenc...
A review of the economics literature:
* https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-zucman-wealthtaxobjectio...
In the end, this loopholes and others lead to a very complex tax (thus high administrative costs) as well as a much lower tax base.
I know there are probably a lot of gotchas with that approach, but I really appreciate the elegance.
Valuations can change pretty fast. If you declare your s&p500 index fund portfolio with the most recent value and it goes up 10% over the next few month until the IRA reviews your wealth. Are they allowed to buy it at the declared value?
Unless the government has to buy the asset the instant you propose your valuation, you’re just being forced to write a free, ATM option to the government.
Illustrative example: The S&P 500 index is currently about 3092. An "at the money" (ATM) option is one where the strike price of the option is equal to the current price. A call option for SPX at 3095 expiring on 12/06/2019 is currently selling for $37.90 on the CBOE.
So basically you're giving away >1.2% of your investment by allowing the government to buy it at a price you quote today but a month later. Alternatively, you have to over-state the present value of the investment and pay more tax.
A 2% annual tax on wealth causes my bank balance to go down by 2% each year. A 2% inflation causes my bank account to become 2% less valuable each year.
The only difference is property (land, cars, etc.). Thats super hard to value anyway, since without selling an item, you can't be sure what it would sell for.
Actually it's quite easy. For land, governments do it all the time:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax
For many other type of property: what is the insured value?
Certainly not exact, but probably with-in an order of magnitude of accuracy, which may be 'good enough'.
If the government believes that it's worth more than that, they are allowed to purchase it for that price, and resell it at auction. If they think it is reasonably priced, or over priced, you have to pay the wealth tax on your proposed price.
This will drastically simplify the problem. There won't be a negotiation on the price, there would be two independent evaluations, rather than one complex one where there's a large amount of back and forth.
I don't know where I heard it, but it was mentioned offhandedly as a simple solution to valuations for a wealth tax.
And then don't asset owners end up paying a surtax on their emotional attachment to their property? i.e. the only way I can hold onto something I would never want to sell is by paying a "wealth tax" that is decoupled from its market value.
Also if it's too much of a burden to value all these assets, you can list them publicly and let people bid. If you expect the government to protect your ownership rights, I think it's not too much to ask that you list your major assets.
Such a scheme could also require you to list a value of "all unlisted assets". If you try to hide a gold bar by lumping it in with all your trash, then the government can buy out and auction "all of razorunreal's unlisted assets" as a job jot. Companies would pop up specialising in identifying people with hidden assets to profit from them.
You always have the option of letting the government buy it from you for your declared value, and then buying it back at auction for actual market value, potentially making a profit if the government were wrong.
The article is, in a round about way, arguing that a wealth tax would need just such a constitutional amendment as well. And in today's political environment it would be much easier to just hike the existing income tax rates than obtain the majorities necessary for passing a constitutional amendment.
For the income tax, there was broad based support for a Federal income tax from both left and right, liberal and conservative, business and labor, rural and urban. Without an income tax, the government was still dependent on taxing alcohol, so the temperance movement backed it, as did those wanting a strong military, and business who didn't want excise taxes to pay for all spending backed it. Small states backed it. Big states backed it. Rural states backed it. The current system of trying to fund the entire government on sin and commerce taxes was hated by everyone.
Moreover at the time, the pro-income tax crowd could promise that only the top 1% would pay any income taxes, and so get the overwhelming support needed for a constitutional amendment.
Although Warren is trying to play the same game here, people are not gonna be fooled again by the "only billionaires will be taxed" line.
At least, as long as 5% are not fooled, it wont pass.
Is this is a good use of your time?
In that case, Why did you say that dogs should be forced to eat cats? I think that's a terrible take, and pretty irresponsible for you to advocate for it.
Although Warren is trying to play the same game here, people are not gonna be fooled again by the "only billionaires will be taxed" line.
I'll only add that I remain baffled when people support tax cuts for other people.
A preferential tax cut for me is a tax increase for you.
Your assumption that opposing the introduction of a new type of tax is equivalent to advocating for a tax cut is false.
You assumption that the total tax base is constant over time and thus advocating a tax cut for you is equivalent to a tax increase for me is false. Easily dispelled by looking at historical data, which shows tax share of GDP is not constant.
Your assumption that the economy consists only of two people, you and the billionaire, so that a tax cut for one is a tax increase for you specifically is false.
Your assumption that it makes no matter whether something happens at the state or federal level is false.
Your belief that it doesn't matter whether a politician misrepresents a policy ('only Billionaires will get taxed to pay for my healthcare plan') as long as you agree with the policy is reprehensible. Truth is important in and of itself.
I could go on, but you are living in a completely different reality from me.
Your "rebuttal" ignores debt over that time span.
You also add a lot of assumptions about assumptions. In the interests of discourse, we'll give you partial credit for participation.
One is psychological. I make a small amount of money relative to Jeff Bezos. If you root under my couch cushions you'll find nickles and dimes. Naturally if you do the same for Jeff you'll find $100 bills and stock certificates worth thousands of dollars. Except you don't. Because on some level if you ask Jeff if $1000 is a lot of money he'll say yes. People know that some amount is a percentage of their totally wealth but they also understand what an amount is worth in absolute terms. And they're jealous of it in those terms.
The other problem I have is that tax avoidance is a fixed cost. It's the price of a tax attorney or more cynically a congressman. All three of the groups - the taxed, the lawyers and the congress people - have an understanding on that. You don't pay %10 of the tax to avoid the tax - you pay a set amount to avoid it. As the tax grows larger the incentive to avoid ratchets up.
E: I should add it disagrees with the central argument that this would be a “direct tax” and mentions ways the wealth tax could itself be structured to give the Supreme Court less of a leg to stand on. Personally I’d rather run a candidate that would even bring this fight in the first place. Maybe if it’s on the news then the >99% of viewers will realize that the <1% are able to beat them down easily in any legal fight imaginable despite their incredible small numbers and harmful distribution preferences.
Let the markets determine the value of the stock, then calculating the tax is a few minutes' work.
Most people who get really rich do so by owning stock or shares in a corporation, partnership or LLC.
For those that do no stock trades, a gross income tax would be a simple alternative.
It would also have the side-effect of destroying the company's valuation and thus its credit rating.
[1] http://money.com/money/5054009/stock-ownership-10-percent-ri...
The probability of something making it through Congress and getting rejected by the court seems pretty low given the historical precedents.
It’s not much of a stretch to think the title was their idea. I’d grant that the paper may have added the word “big”. It has their name on it.
Nobody "needs" a penthouse suite in Vegas, a 100 foot yacht, or a Ferrari. Why not start there?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1993/07/16/h...
10,000% tax on mega-yachts and private jets?
Fine if you want to levy a huge tax on yachts, but very few people who could afford one have the inclination. And from what I gather, those who do want a yacht buy it in Italy, not the US.
If you really want to tax the things rich people buy, then start with a land value tax. Rich people buy huge amounts of real estate. Taxing it at its fair, unimproved value would be ideal [1].
I still haven’t seen anyone estimate how much Amazon’s value would drop if Jeff Bezos has to liquidate 6%+ of his Amazon shares every year. Who is even buying those shares? One could claim, well the existing trading volume would support it, but these predicted, yearly fire sales are going to be happening across all asset classes by the ultra wealthy. We may just be switching from paying for current consumption with IOUs (Treasury bonds) to transferring ownership of American assets to foreigners and thus future income.
- incentive effects
- investment effects
- asset flight
- valuation
- avoidance
- breaking up going concerns (small business/family farm)
- the fact that it hasn't worked anywhere
Oh, yeah, and as they said, it's illegal.I have met plenty of people who say "don't give me a pay rise, I don't want to hit the 40% tax rate", even with a marginal tax scheme with no discontinuities.
Generally pay raises come with an expectation of effort and commitment. Maybe the people saying no don't think the after tax amount covers the increases in those things.