Also weigh this against the fact that Uber had a relatively small float from its IPO compared to the shares coming free now. They had about 200 million shares available on their IPO and 4x that coming off restriction which is a huge ration.
They tried their best to boost their IPO at the expense of their employee's and the results are.... well not great.
I guess the good news is that with this lock up expiring 90% of the available Uber shares will now be available to trade so within the next week or so we'll find out what Uber's new price equilibrium will be.
Lots of open interest on the weekly $26 puts at the moment with nothing coming close on the call side, which indicates that not too many people expect a pop.
I guess the one silver lining is that Softbank probably won't be too active of a seller which should help employee's jumping ship.
Will be interesting to see the staff turnover at Uber in the next 6 months.
uber just had a big block trade one at a 4% discount, this is a pretty big discount from what a block trade would normally cross at which indicate that the buyer expects a larger drop to occur.
So looking at their cash position, they have about $12.5B in cash wich is good and total debt of $7.8 so lets call it $5B in cash on hand with free cash flow estimated at -$3.8B a year, so charitably 1.5 years of cash flow remain if the losses don't increase/decrease which isn't a very good assumption given that the losses have accelerated from 2017 and 2018
For something positive East is about 13% of revenue and "other" is 2.3% of revenue so they are starting to diversify their revenue, though at tremendous cost to their profitability.
Revenue is also pretty diversified by country with the US being only 53% of revenue which is a big accomplishment!!!