One Tether Trader Didn't Cause the Bitcoin Bubble

Bitcoin does have enough flexibility to do trustless cross-chain trading though, so it's possible to do dapp logic in Eth and manipulate BTC funds indirectly. (IIRC)

Honored. Thank you.

I read the article. It seems Ethereum 2.0 will double down on its wildly successful model of collecting rent from all the ponzis that live on it. Good strategy. It's still not useful though.

The litany of already-existing financial services the Ethereum community aims to replicate just proves my point--these use cases for crypto are already solved problems. It would be one thing if it's 10x better than the incumbent, but it's not even 1x better. A version of something that already exists "but with crypto" is actually a worse, slower, more expensive version of that thing. There has to be some hurdle uniquely overcome by decentralization that would justify the increased costs of this horrible implementation…like censorship by armed thugs. Who is censoring your ability to open a CD? A retirement account is the most boring thing in the world.

I feel for the people in Iran and Venezuela who cannot (easily) access foreign banks, but these people are better served by using cryptography in other ways (e.g. TOR; E2E encryption/DHKE) to access back channels to funnel money overseas to a free country's financial services. People living under totalitarian states sanctioned by the U.S. will always be a superminority (let alone of the population with real money to invest). The answer to their problems isn't to blanket adopt a new currency with performance characteristics so poor they would only be feasible if we in fact lived under a totalitarian state also.

Product-market-fit for Ethereum is designed for a dystopia where banking services are illegal; lending is illegal (and borrowers are required to over-collateralize their loans (?!!)); financial markets are inaccessible (stocks and businesses do not exist in this world, only lone wandering merchants with Trezors); every other currency is defunct or so volatile that somehow ETHEREUM is the best choice as a stable settlement layer; and you can't move because every country in the world is like this (yet somehow Ethereum coexists with global totalitarianism).

Reimplementing financial services "but with ETH" is also very certainly not innovation.

> You're too focused on the trees, you can't see the forest.

Don't get me wrong--buy Ethereum. It is completely useless, but the price has nothing to do with its usefulness or anything I said above. It could be worth $100k without any use case because humans.

We had this back in the 70s, FWIW. It failed as a miserable hunk of garbage then, it's failing as a miserable hunk of garbage now by all metrics except how efficiently it parts fools from their money.

RE: Maker, certainly agree, just stating the situation. There's no chance of laws being able to keep up, it's a game of asking for forgiveness later for most. If something blew up quick enough and got mainstream adaption the law would bend for it (ie. Uber, AirBnb).

https://decrypt.co/5940/secs-crypto-czar-stablecoins-might-b...

https://www.coindesk.com/the-race-is-on-to-replace-ethereums...

I was pretty wrong, both about it being a stable and a currency.

As another commenter mentioned, I'm also excited to have been here for it all and stille excited to see where it leads. Ultimately, whether you love it or hate it, Bitcoin has made its mark on history and has kind of become the giant shoulders that the next generation can stand on.

By making a 'dumb' plan, you remove the enticement to try and time the market.

Perhaps even more than wall street markets, it's hard to day trade Bitcoin successfully: most of the advice you'll read is by people who are either lying, exaggerating or got lucky. The major issue is that there is a TON of non-public information that is much more relevant to price levels than publicly available information. Many smart players who are using 'insider info' will be able to eat your lunch.

I fully expect that someone has a very accurate model of the quantity of deposits at some exchanges via address linking, and is watching inflows and outflows carefully. I also expect employees of Bitcoin exchanges are passing data to trader friends. Knowing when a big chunk of Bitcoin is about to be tradable on an exchange is a great sell indicator, and USD a great buy indicator.

    // parameters: $520 to invest over 1 year

    for(i=1; i<=52; i++) {
      buy(10 usd);
      sleep(1 week);
    }

So if you think it will go up over time, then if you have $x for it right now, put it all in. Don't DCA it because if you believe it will go up over time, then you're just missing out on the gains you believe will be there. If you're convincing yourself that it'll go down in the next 2 months before it goes up the 4 after that, you're just being too clever trying to predict the future.

DCA is just about what you do with additional money you get in the future, that you don't have yet. Like, if your DCA money is 0.5% of your yearly revenue, then after each paycheck, put that 0.5% of your paycheck into your investment. That's all it is. The idea is that it is to keep you from forgetting about the market and only investing when everyone's talking about it during the highs.