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Comment by aritmo | Hacker News Reader

This is a big bet by TSMC. If they pull it through, and they might do, they will be ahead of competition for the next decade.

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I wonder what Intel's response to this will be. I haven't heard any news about them getting in the 3nm game within the next 2 years.

Do we know the story of what happened in the Intel 10nm debacle? I know that they went from being a generation ahead of everyone to a generation behind TSMC, but that seems like a bigger misstep than just fumbling a single node.

I've heard rumors that 10nm was late and management at Intel put a lot of pressure on the process teams, which led to the "old guard" quitting and the younger generation left fumbling with unusable yields.

But they're only rumors - it's entirely possible that's not the case.

The only thing I have to go on is the fact that the semiconductor rumor mill absolutely called this one.

Years ago, when intel was publicly announcing that 10nm would ship in a few months, the rumor mill said that not only would it not ship in a few months, it would not ship at all for the foreseeable future, up to the point of missing the entire 10nm node. That's exactly what happened.

The scenario you described would be 100% consistent with those observations. I still look forward to the inside scoop because, in accordance with your suspicions, I suspect there's a juicy case study in there about self-deluded "beatings will continue until morale improves" style management felling an industry titan, or at least stumbling it badly.

10nm++++++++ of course.

They're still on 14 nm ++

What about Cannon Lake and Ice Lake then? Both of those lines are supposed to be 10 nm.

Cannon Lake had a fumbled release last year and Ice Lake processors started shipping with some newer computers last month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannon_Lake_(microarchitecture...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Lake_(microprocessor)

You are correct. Intel is on 14nm+++ for Desktop/Server/Mobile but there are some Ice lake mobile chips at 10nm.

I believe that they were going to skip 10 nm and go to 7 nm, although they are already on the 10 nm process at certain foundries.

If TSMC does this and Intel doesn't then by proxy AMD will absolutely destroy Intel on every metric.

Well until Intel just says fuck it and lets TSMC manufacture their new stuff. I don't think TSMC has an exclusivity deal with AMD.

That would be politically tough for Intel. They used to lead the pack in foundries.

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