PDC 1996 Keynote with Bob Muglia and Steve Jobs [video]
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But when you go back and read their work or view their videos — like this one — it’s remarkable how clear and detailed their vision is of how things will be.
Jobs is famous for this so you might think it’s a cherry picked example but I think it’s largely true (no doubt you’ll find an exception) of almost any big time tech executive. They have a clear, detailed, largely accurate view of how things will turn out.
I notice it in our industry (Accounting Software) a lot. All players, when talking to them on a C-Level basically know where the puck is going, but the capability to move the company there is for various reasons extremely different.
This doesn't just mean that small agile startups have the advantage, there are also lots of moats and synergy requirements that can restrict new entrants of reaching the level necessary to perform at the expected level in the future.
There are only a couple of "ground truth streams" flowing into a businesses accounting. Making sure you own as many as possible of them goes a long way towards automating the tasks necessary to properly model the business and do the accounting.
I was referring to the entry barriers here because being able to offer for example a business bank account, credit card etc. with proper APIs to trigger payments and receive transactions in realtime still carriers regulatory hurdles in most countries that are not negligible, even if it got cheaper in most countries. Same goes for loans, factoring...
Lot's of areas to earn money with, pretty much everyone in that space has it in their slidedeck as a revenue channel somewhere down the road.
I could further elaborate but at the end of the day it's moving offtopic.
I'd say predicting the future is less hard than arriving there.
Lots of C's were very, very wrong about the future.
I believe that's largely because they spend a lot of time listening to their customers, understanding their needs and sifting through the trends in their businesses.
What's harder though, is inventing the future. Apple I believe did it in some ways with the original Mac, iPhone and iPad, and Tesla are now doing it with their cars.
The hard part of delivering the right trade off between usability, reliability, timeliness, cost with the right team and ecosystem.
I mean everyone knew that rich web over mobile would work but did that look like blackberry, iPhone, Android, windows phone etc
And Jobs would take credit. And the process probably didn’t feel collaborative to the other employees. My point is that Jobs didn’t come up with these things all on his own. Other employees were heavily involved.
Jobs was always on the lookout for selling points, the "one more thing." But the impact of objects as a selling point through NeXT and WebObjects on Apple's consumer-focused tech is only skin deep, because creating a comprehensive system would have taken much longer, but it was enough for Jobs to impress people, and provide an essence of an advantage. This was clear in at least early versions of OSX (I haven't used OSX for years), where drag and drop between identifiable objects worked… sometimes. The remaining functionality would have been much harder to achieve, and would have meant something really significant was being built, rather than what became a current generational marketing push. The idea of an object oriented system isn't talked about much anymore, and Apple really focuses on Raskins' ideas for interface, which aren't really compatible since it focuses on one object at a time, rather than a system of objects.
We’ve had object technologies before in mainstream environments (OpenDoc, COM), and yet they’re effectively dead today. They were very complex, and the main pathways can be explicitly supported with better UX when the target apps are written with what’s supported in mind.
They are the figureheads of their respective companies. And just as the engineer builds the product, their job is to sell it. You'd be lucky to work for a company with people at the top as persuasive as Jobs or Musk.
Not really, people are not stupid. They can see through that.
How much of their insight comes from others (eg. senior staff, acquisition targets, etc.) and how much from their own noggin so to speak?
Or a better way to ask this might be, how would one go about replicating this insight if one is not a CEO of a tech company? What resources would I need to pull in, who should I be talking with?
They not always "see" it right. It is tough to forecast future in tech.
On YouTube, it has the correct aspect ratio:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmCu97u35Ek
How do we find the car of the uploader?
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1187/
Some perspective on the presentation:
At 13:20 or so, Jobs says "Of course you need a compiler, because a scripting language would be too slow for the server if it is used by a lot of users". Little did he know ... PHP was out for about a year when this presentation was given. Still lives today and powers most of the web.
In terms of "performance needed for many users", Facebook doesn't use PHP (a "scripted language") for everything. etc.
I don’t think php ever compiled to C, based on a quick scan of the Wikipedia page. I thought it compiled to perl at one point but that doesn’t seem to be true either.
Mp4 https://sec.ch9.ms/ch9/6f1b/49417183-9944-40c9-ab1c-5b2d51aa...
Even Higher quality wmv https://sec.ch9.ms/ch9/6f1b/49417183-9944-40c9-ab1c-5b2d51aa...
Consider the iPhone and the then Android phones (which appeared later anyway).
Consider the iPad and the vastly worst first competing tablets (back in 2010 or so), which in addition cost $100-$200 more than the iPad.
Consider Apple Watch today and what's available from the competition (at the same category, which includes e.g. the Samsung watches and so, I know there are e.g. Garmin watches that last 2 weeks, but they have different target group and functionality).
Consider the AirPods as well.
(And, again, for all of those, I'm talking at launch and for the first 1-2 years. For some of those we have decent competition now).
The good news is that in the talk, Steve mentioned that the Enterprise WebObjects (probably the one you needed: EOF was for WebObjects what Cocoa was for OS X) license was $25k so it had started to drop. Even back then free was tough to compete with...
At the time, even though it was easy to see that free software would eventually reach a critical mass and overtake all the system software space, the market was not nearly there.
While I used a lot of Perl (which was free) to write dynamic pages, all my software was running on Solaris and IRIX on very expensive hardware. HTTP was served mostly by Netscape's proprietary server with some traffic on NCSA HTTPd. Linux, IIRC, had terrible SMP support back then and Windows was a joke.
Put differently, any platform needs a critical mass to survive, and if they price it so high, it won't have that critical mass, causing it to die, in which case the development cost would be wasted.
Surely people in the 80s weren't so dumb as to not understand network effects, so what am I missing?
My MacBook would like to have a word with you. ;-)
NeXTSTEP was only dead to the market - it was still a pretty good OS, specially when compared to MacOS 9 and Windows. NeXT failed against Sun and SGI, not against the PC market. They never even tried that.
That's 2019 thinking. In 1990s almost no one would think that, especially in the world of commercial software.
NeXT boxes could not compete in the visualization space against SGI and they lagged behind Sun, Digital and HP in price/performance, even after ditching the MO disk for conventional ones. It also didn't help much they had a weird Unix OS that didn't have X.
They were well rounded machines and their development tools were excellent, but that's it. As much as I would have loved to have one, I could never justify the tradeoffs between it and, say, a Sun pizza box.
But then the cost was revealed and my employer had no interest.
Web technology in a nutshell...
Also interesting is that he rehearsed the presentation several times using the production database. Perhaps dev/staging environment were not widespread at that time, and a separate Oracle instance would be expensive.
Why should it be considered a mistake to say good things about a competitor? I know many company representatives avoid it very strictly, but to me it shows intelligence, honesty and awareness of the rest of the industry, which are all good things.
Notably though Apple very rarely compares their products to competitors', because they want to show it as in a completely different class.
He must be a decent stand-up comedian.
Another example was when he switched screens and the car website appeared instead of the flights website, the audience laughed and he said something like “we recommend them driving instead of taking a plane”.
At the same time, I feel sorry for him and his alikes; it most have been tough to constantly work upstream, trying to inspire people that just don't get it.
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/PDC/PDC-1996/PDC-1996-Keyno...
I was experimenting with IDC for a client project at the time but quickly switched to ASP as soon as the beta became available.
EDIT: I think it is Toy Story. I thought this was much later but apparently it fits the time frame. Unfortunately Wayback Machine doesn't have: 302 redirecting to Disney:-(
Object remoting via NeXT Smalltalk (Objective C) messages seemed so much easier than CORBA or DCOM. Or Sun RPC. HP was a big supporter of the NeXT approach.
It was a complicated time.
Still, Steve Jobs has such a unique comeback story of being in 1996 head of two interesting but commercially mostly failing companies, one of which is shortly later being bought by an Apple skirting on going out of business and riddled by intense technical debt. And only a decade later he presents the iPhone and had Pixars stunning success.
Those are not uncommon prices...
You can get into the million territory easily...
Doesn't stop them trying though!
I wonder if Apple could have positioned Mac OS X server to run that sort of thing
Instead of Stack Overflow, we had Matt's Script Archive
(though i have met a few haters of wo here and there, i could never get a good reason why)
Its price tag probably prevented the average startup from using it. It’s hard to use expensive software before you have funding.
Apple still use WO internally for a lot of things (apple store, iTunes store), but I think it's slowly dying outside the company. The place I used to develop for slowly moved away from it, interestingly mostly because apple killed the XServe and so it got harder and harder to deploy.
* the face of the company * drives the products of his companies with a unified vision * works his ass off * is an asshole to people under him * a visionary and a bit eccentric
Jobs has Musk beat on charisma though by a long shot. Musk is kind of Woz and Jobs combined.