Qwiki Epitomizes the Current Startup Bubble
epicfumble.com
epicfumble.com
Just food for thought - check out http://www.qwiki.com/for-publishers.
Let's say that they pick up a reasonable number of tier-1 publishers into this format.
Heck maybe they already have commitments and that was part of their pitch in raising the additional $8m.
How would that change your perception of their valuation?
Beyond that, look at the "team" page.
Content monetization is a HUGE area of opportunity online and that's one heck of a team they've compiled - would you rather give those guys $8m and bet on a huge one or throw your money into the stack at AOL's public offering?
To a hacker trying to get a complex project off the ground on pocket money, $8 million sounds like a fantastic sums, but there are many circles in which investing this amount of money in people you're connected to is trivial, regardless of market mood. It's not even necessarily the case that this is bad investment. If the investors believe, for whatever reason, in the company's executive team, it's probably because they are counting on them to somehow grow the company into a viable business. Many such companies, for example, will be spun into consulting, services or b2b companies you'll never read about on techcrunch, but which at the very least make a modest return on their investment. The fact that Qwiki is very unlikely to become the next huge internet phenomenon doesn't mean that it's a bad investment - it only has to not die and grow into a business worth more than its current valuation.
It also makes me realize that most of my business ideas are way too complex in an effort to provide real value. I throw away ideas like Qwiki because I wouldn't feel like I'm providing much value. I need to shift my focus to creating dead simple, but very pretty websites and see what sticks. :)
If this were 1990 or I didn't know about wikipedia, then I would be very impressed and think this was true artificial intelligence.
All the posts about Qwiki and others recently (Facebook, Zynga, Groupon) all calling for the downfall of all these start ups really make me question the value of this community at times - and it's not like these posts have 10-12 points either, they have some of the highest point totals of any articles on HN.
Constructive criticism is great, it's just there has been a notable lack of worthwhile criticism lately. In my opinion of course - but honestly, did you read the linked article? Does it contain any valuable insights into Qwiki? Yet it has over 100 points - this is the start up 'criticism' echo chamber at work.
And there are other forms of criticism that are still valid and useful. Not all criticism needs to be reassuring and/or useful to the subject of the criticism. It can be quite valuable to others to point out how and why something just isn't very good or when something unreasonable is being done - like throwing millions of dollars at something that isn't very good.
Now, what exactly is the value of complaining about an "echo chamber" or saying that people would be better off just shrugging, going back to work, and hoping they're lucky enough to get $8 million showered on them regardless of merit?
He's got a point. Taunts cost little and yield nothing.
Take the Qwiki entry on polyamory, for example: http://www.qwiki.com/q/#!/Polyamory
Qwiki pronounces it wrong, which means it actually decreases the value of the information it is regurgitating from Wikipedia.
>The most common symbol is the red and white heart combined with the blue infinity sign[.] Therefore, [the California SSM ruling] legitimizes polygamy and polyamory.
The first sentence, which is missing a period but it pauses on like it exists (correctly so), goes with their picture of a purple, upside-down, half-twist-on-each-side triangle. Whups.
The second sentence makes no sense in context.
I wonder if they pull phonetic information from Wikipedia. If they do, then polyamory wouldn't benefit from it, as it has no phonetic pronunciation there. If they don't, they probably get a lot of foreign-origin words more incorrect than we're seeing right away.
edit: Another odd pronunciation: http://www.qwiki.com/q/#!/.sch
>www...sch.uk
is a) incorrectly written, and b) pronounced "w-w-w [long pause....] s-c-h-uck". (letters, followed by "yuck" minus the y). And the "contents" tab is failing to load for me.
I have a feeling that Qwiki's value may be more under the covers with respect to its processing of data then the consumer facing product we currently see. Or it could just be overhyped.
With respect to a current bubble. This is a round with 7 investors (mostly individuals) dipping their toes. I think if you're looking for signs of a bubble this is a bunch of people with money to spend and an interesting product. It doesn't really show much irrational exuberance.
The pitch was more likely of the form: "On a shoestring, we've launched this public functionality, and can show you this even more impressive private functionality, which needs $8 million to be further improved and scaled up."
The way I see it is this: Wikipedia is not very consumer friendly. It's dull looking and the entries are usually filled with a lot of text. The modern internet consumer is constantly facing more and more attention disorders and a lot of people don't simply like to read.
The search result in qwiki is auditory and visual and you can consume it completely without reading anything. I looked up a few countries I want to visit, a few programming languages and everything worked incredibly well.
One of his arguments is that the technology is something that could easily be duplicated. I think it's true up to a point, but honestly, what hacker couldn't duplicate the base functionality of a twitter of 4sq in an afternoon? I think the inherent value isn't actually with the technology itself but with the implementation, the data, the UI and, ultimately (so it seems), the company's dedication to packaging information in a more-easy-to-consume fashion.
This will work incredibly well on a internet connected TV screen. Who can picture themselves reading wikipedia articles with their spouse in the living room off the TV? Not me. But if I'm going to, say.. Oslo http://www.qwiki.com/q/#!/Oslo I could picture myself looking that up and listening/watching with my SO. Even if only to get the basic info.
Another usecase is with mobile operation. Since I got my HTC desire I constantly google stuff by doing a voice search. I have to use my best american accent, but none the less it's very useful. If my search result could be a visual/auditory search result like that, it would suite some cases much better.
I think this might actually mark a new era in the startup space. I'm coining the term:
Content 2.0
Somebody grab that domain name if it's not already taken?That Wikipedia is already so successful seems to suggest to me that it is very consumer friendly.
I'll bet you that 90% of the time you hit up Wikipedia you'll only read the top paragraph. At least that's what I do and I've seen more people use Wikipedia like that.
In fact, I love duckduckgo's 0-click result because of exactly that.
Wikipedia is not very consumer friendly. It's dull looking and the entries are usually filled with a lot of text.
That you read the abstract at the top of the article suggests to me that the article structure is very efficient (and arguably consumer friendly) in that they provide the TLDR summary above the fold, which nullifies the problem that the full article may have too much text.
By the way, my use case for Wikipedia tends to have me reading the complete article more than just the abstract, because I'm usually in research mode when I use Wikipedia. Of course, everyone has a different use case, and I suspect your use case is more common than mine.
Most non-tech people I know would have probably looked at Wikipedia once or twice. I would say Wikipedia is barely scratching the surface of delivering knowledge to the general person on the street.
There is definitely scope for delivering wikipedia information in an alternative format. Particularly through mobile devices. It's like when Facebook was still limited to universities and was yet to bust out into general use.
I still don't see it as anything more than a toy, even in these cases, and how the valuation could be at all justified, especially given their usage trend while in the alpha, even with all the TC hype.
Back in the days when I was a student, there were two easy (read lazy) ways out of reading a book/play: Cliff's Notes (in Canada, they were called Cole's Notes) or watching the movie version.
Neither was really a good substitute for the original, although the Cliff's Notes were invariably better than watching a movie.
If you were to see Wikipedia as the "Cliff's Notes" of a particular subject area, then isn't Qwiki just the "movie version" of the Cliff's Notes?
It is both a blessing and a curse to judge these things based on your own opinions and maybe that's what I'm doing right now.
Because I actually want to use this. Not for everything, but I for many things I can imagine myself using this. At least I've put it in chrome's search bar under the keyword qwiki, let's see if it sticks :)
When's the last time you read a wikipedia article from start to finish, without even first checking that it contained the tidbit you were looking for?
Text is skimmable, dialog isn't.
A look at the progression of other infrastructural technologies is useful. Consider the history of electricity. Paul David, an economic historian at Stanford, noted that it took many decades for business and society to reap tangible benefits from electricity. While important technologies were introduced throughout the 1800s (e.g., electric motors, light bulbs, generation stations), David suggests that an observer in 1900 would have found scant evidence that electricity was having an impact on business efficiency. To take advantage of electricity required not only the introduction of new technologies, but also a deepening of our understanding and in turn a transformation of business and social processes. For instance, manufacturing facilities, which were originally designed for steam power, needed to be significantly reconfigured.
Although David’s discussion was focused on the lag in productivity improvements resulting from electricity, it provides some useful insights about the state of the Internet and its commercialization. While the first computers emerged in the 1940s, and the Internet was born in the 1960s, it wasn’t until much later that computing and the Internet were widely adopted by business and consumers. For instance, it wasn’t until the early 1990s that the Internet transitioned from a government/ academic project to a commercially available system, and the Internet wasn’t broadly available to consumers until the mid-1990s.
In a mere five years from the commercial emergence of the Internet, we faced the first Internet bubble and bust in 2000. Looking back at history, it’s no surprise that the first wave of applications generally performed disappointingly, both technically and commercially. Broadband connectivity, the Internet backbone, and critical software and hardware standards were still in the early stages of development. Along with an emerging infrastructure, there was a limited understanding of the potential of the Internet among entrepreneurs, established companies, and broader society.
Now that we’ve had 10 more years to develop core infrastructure and to deepen our understanding of the Internet (and computing) from a technical and commercial standpoint, we are witnessing the emergence of a new crop of high-growth companies. Distinct from many of the Internet companies that arose in the late 1990s, a greater percentage of today’s companies receiving venture funding are both technically and commercially viable. Many deliver real customer value and have a tenable revenue model. In addition, to companies such as Facebook, Groupon, and Zynga, there are a myriad of smaller successful ventures, such as Pandora, Dropbox, and Airbnb.
To conclude, the 2000 bubble arose just a few years after the commercialization of the Internet. There was excitement about the potential of the Internet, but the supporting infrastructure and our knowledge was in its relative infancy. A decade later, we have made significant progress on both fronts. The latest new ventures incorporate technologies and business models that reflect significant infrastructure improvements and our maturing knowledge-base. Are select companies overvalued? It’s possible. Does this overvaluation reflect an industry-wide bubble? I don’t think so. In fact, I think we are at the early stages of a multi-decade transformation, catalyzed by computing and the Internet, and we will continue to see significant opportunity and new venture growth in this space. We are moving toward ubiquitous computing and connectivity, where technology pervades our business and personal lives. Personally, I look forward to participating in this exciting and dynamic future!
There is definitely a bubble right now, I've seen average 8-15mil rounds for companies that offer something tangental to a popular service (it's LIKE FourSquare, or it's LIKE Pandora) despite the fact that original services themselves are not necessarily making huge exits. Perhaps it's just that the horizons on the dotcom VC funds are expiring and there are lots of new funds?
Industrials correlate to GDP, and GDP is projected to be flat. Same goes with consumer products and volatility is too high in media. If you have capital to put to work, Tech appears to have the highest risk/return profile.
Phrased differently: if you had $10mil, where would you put it?
25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, 25% cash?
(That's literally what the "Fail-Safe Investing" book boils down to. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail-Safe_Investing)
" It might seem that a Permanent Portfolio
containing these four contradictory investments would
be neutralized: As one element rose, another would fall
and nothing would be gained.
On a day-to-day basis, that can be true.
But over broad periods of time, the winning investments
add more value to the portfolio than the losing
investments take away."
He gives some numbers in the book, from 1970 till 2002 the portfolio lost money only in four years: 6.2% in 1981, 0.7% in 1990, 2.4% in 1994, and 1.0% in 2001. Three of these four years were followed by double-digit gains. The average gain was 9.5% per year.This is utterly absurd and shows a complete misunderstanding of economic growth.
If you're pitching your business as X for Y and X is still a massively unproven startup - you've missed the train.
Work on creating your own X - you want to be the market leader - its the only way to truly win in the consumer web.
Take Facebook as an example. Is Facebook worth $50b, per the recent Goldman Sachs investment? It's possibly worth much more, if we assume that Facebook is the winner-take-all in a network market (social networking). Are there significant uncertainties related to Facebook's revenue model and the company's ability to fend off substitution threats? Yes. But this is consistent with the risk/reward profile that comes with an equity investment in a privately held, high-growth tech company.
It's not surprising that so many successes should shake out the other end of the sieve when it's so easy for someone to launch a successful site from their bedroom or dorm.
This isn't meant to be offensive, it's just one of those things that until someone tells you about it you'll continue to go on unknowingly making the same mistake. I had someone do this with me recently in regards to my presentation 'skills', or lack thereof, and it was very helpful.
No, Qwiki isn't the be-all and end-all in this space, but it's an example of the kind of thing that's possible when people re-mix wikipedia content and respin it for different purposes and audiences.
That said, $7M gives them a lot of rope to hang themselves, in particular, a lot of time to hire people and make commitments without the need to focus on something that's profitable.
My guess is that there are quite a few people working on things in their garages without an early round of funding who are going to produce things that are more interesting and make more money in the end.
However, it could be also that they have vision of the world which is hard for me to comprehend or imagine. The question is: what is their vision?
Jay Oh was the tech lead at Doug's previous startup, The U (http://www.theu.com), which shot and sold video tours of colleges (Gregory Smith and several other actors from the WB appeared in and helped promote many of these videos, so it's all very connected); I'm pretty sure they achieved a very nice exit from that when they sold and started to work on Qwiki. I don't know why Jay left Qwiki, specifically, but he's now one of the leads at http://howmutch.com/.
FWIW, I'm not part of Qwiki, but I was good friends with Doug when we were younger - on that note, just based on what I know about Doug, if I had to bet, I'd say that Qwiki has a very good shot here, regardless of what it looks like now. He has an impeccable business sense and will pivot without hesitation if it looks like he needs to, not to mention that he's one of the most driven people I've ever met in my life.
Currently they are mining wikipedia because (I'm guessing) it's a convenient source for a massive amount of data to feed into an automated system. No one really cares about turning wikipedia entries into slideshows, but I know from experience that car dealers and real estate agents pay real money to have their pictures and data converted into videos.
Is it just because $8m > $50k, or has something changed in the last four months?
Whether or not it's useful is something I doubt we've really come close to answering yet.
Then again I thought the same about dropbox, its just rsync, some server managed storage and a webapp on top. But they seem to be well liked. It's hard to predict what will stick and what won't.
Through my extensive knowledge of The Social Network (watched it twice!), I'm pretty sure Saverin was that guy whose girlfriend lit his bed on fire. This may shed some light on why the author thinks Qwiki seems poised for failure. I think.
(and compare to AirBnB, which has a function in the real economy outside the web)
The author does not explain, though, how this is emblematic of a general trend.
Can you elaborate what QWiki has to offer, except a nicer user interface for Wikipedia?
With Powerset, the value was supposed to be in the technology, even if the demo was on Wikipedia. With other companies, say, Twitter, the power is in the size of their network and potential for something, even if the technology isn't groundbreaking.
I don't know what, if any, magic Qwiki has cooking but I think the OP is excessively harsh. My point was that a lot of startups have needed a big round to go to the next level from a limited proof of concept where there's nothing special on their public facing service. So what? Hopefully the vision and potential is evident under the hood and that's what the investment was predicated on.