It's going to happen faster than we've been told. I expect in 10 years global panic will set in.
Once you have a 3 days heatwave, it's bad. If they occur during summer and the next summer, and if they last for 1 week or more, several times per summer, people will not talk about it, but feel it and understand that global warming is settling in and will not go away.
The problem is that the temperature increase can be sudden and difficult to anticipate. A heatwave can also kill a lot of people (the elderly, the young, people will fragile health, and also people who don't prepare or don't listen to warnings).
You're right that in 10 years there are strong chances for a global panic, but if crops yields are bad it can also have fast consequences. It just hope the wakeup calls will make people react swiftly and as soon as possible. I'd rather have a big heatwave that gives enough political capital to act and do things, than a slow and creeping climate change where nothing is done and it becomes too late.
A good short term thing would be to more clearly understand the real costs of the things we do today. What is the long term environmental impact and so on.
Also, economic growth does not necessarily rely on increased production of physical goods. If people stopped paying for physical toys in lieu of software, for instance, the economy very well could grow while the physical footprint of the average person decreased (all else remaining the same). If people preferred experiential entertainment such as movies, escape rooms, etc more than e.g. boating, that could also result in economic growth while physical consumption of goods decreases.
But, while we can continue to grow economically without increasing physical consumption (all else being equal), the elephant in the room is that a very large portion of the world does not live a life even remotely similar to that of a wealthy, developed country resident wrt physical resource consumption. So even if we in rich countries maintained our resource usage, global demand for physical resources will continue to grow rapidly as other parts of the world develop. So are we willing to consign huge swathes of the globe to eternal poverty, or will we actively decrease our resource consumption?
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology...
...some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh to be validating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded fatalists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic order—such as an ancient Mayan prophecy. This kind of mythology removes any sense of individual responsibility.
Models are educated guesses at realty; are the models guaranteed 100% accurate? No, and I'm (just) guessing that the inaccuracies are in the conservative realm.
I do not find it validating, I find it terrifying. I worry for my kids future.
Anybody who isn't worried about what's happening now is a fool.
It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative. The changing climate isn't a linear system, it's more like a step function. Once the ice melts it's much harder to get back.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenla...
> “Now we can see that the Vikings could grow corn, and this was very important for their nourishment and survival,”
Barley seems to do ok in late Spring conditions in the NE United States [1]. I'm not certain you could grow barley or corn in Tundra conditions.
I bring this up when people mention warming global conditions because the planet has, in the past, been much warmer than it is now.
[0] https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vi...
Your second sentence is TBD, except that the actual natural cycle that would have led to an ice age in a few thousand years’ time has been disrupted and that ice age (and perhaps the one after it) will not now occur.
Your third sentence does not follow from either of the first two, and is demonstrably false as a conclusion because we are in fact talking about it.
I contend that the warming leads to a tipping point that brings on the glaciation. Its part of the cycle.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...
The effects how over the course of decades. The world is not going to end in 10 years.