Comment by helen___keller | Hacker News Reader

Comment by helen___keller | Hacker News Reader

While I disagree pretty heavily with the author's central thesis (and this thesis relies on an ill-defined "american dream" that the author roughly describes as the period of postwar growth & prosperity for middle/upper class americans in the 1950s), I do have to agree with this part of the author's conclusion:

> China’s success scares me. There is something deeply disconcerting about watching China surpass America in the ways it is. China is transforming fishing villages into major industrial cities, while we fail to build high-speed rail or new housing. How are we going to catch up?

Right now China is still high off a period of heavy growth and industrialization. How China can handle easing out of heavy growth in the next 2-6 decades will show how real the Chinese dream is, but my personal fear (as a person who believes strongly in western liberalism) is that a rich authoritarian country can unlock a world of efficiency that the western world can only dream of, leaving our standard of living in the dust by comparison

I fear that this will lead to an era of global authoritarianism as countries around the world seek to emulate the success.

As a rail enthusiast, watching China build huge subway networks and a massive web of HSR almost overnight while my very rich western city struggles to extend a century old trolley by a few miles in the same timeframe, it really feels bad.

I wonder about this. By all accounts construction of homes in China is so haphazard buildings frequently become uninhabitable, and occasionally literally collapse within a few years. Clearly China has a lot of money and has exhibited the capacity for some large scale construction projects. But to what extent it is merely attempting to outrun a construction bubble, and ensnare developing world countries in debt; versus building a sustainable economic model, is questionable.

At the bottom end, manufacturing is moving out of China to countries like Vietnam. While high tech manufacturing is still China's forte, this is largely confined to special economic zones like Shenzien, and reliant on lack of enforcement of patent and copyright, as well as government subsidies for import and exports of components and manufactured goods. We're all familiar with the impossibly cheap components and electronic devices available through services like Ali.

I'm not sure any of this is sustainable - whether in an environmental sense, or economically. There is much that is illusory about the Chinese economy, and the recent clamp down of state control may well be an effort for the CCP to maintain control during the inevitable economic collapse they see coming.

> By all accounts construction of homes in China is so haphazard buildings frequently become uninhabitable, and occasionally literally collapse within a few years.

Well, I'm not convinced that this effect is necessarily widespread. Certainly more common than in the west where we have strict building regulations and such, but this is the flip side of getting a lot of housing built cheaply, which is necessary for China. An analogue might be construction in the states during our industrial revolution - we had all sorts of horrid issues, from barely-livable tenements with no ventilation to massive fires that killed tons of poor workers. Most of the stuff we built back then doesn't come close to conforming with modern building code.

In any case, it's not a big problem I saw personally in China, but I'm n=1 here. I stayed in a relatives' apartment building from the 90s that was holding up fine, as well as perfectly nice newer apartments that relatives enjoyed in tier3 cities and older houses and townhouses that aged well.

I imagine this is the kind of thing that western media likes to play up, but isn't as visible for people on the ground (another example is the social credit system - I couldn't find any evidence the social credit system even exists yet during my time in China, much less the horrifying things we see reported regularly.)

> But to what extent it is merely attempting to outrun a construction bubble, and ensnare developing world countries in debt; versus building a sustainable economic model, is questionable.

Strongly agreed, hence my comments that the next 2-6 decades of slowing growth will be very telling on the "Chinese dream".

I don't think Chinese success is guaranteed - I think the CCP has made a lot of frightful financial gambles. My big fear is that it does, somehow, pay off, and the world turns to China as a model of how to run a country as a result.

False dichotomy. Large Infra projects need huge land parcels. What do you think your options are in China if the govt decides it wants your land?

They get away with all kinds of abnormal activity because most of their citizens are still poor. Once people have resources they won't bend over as they once did. I doubt their rate of progress will continue as it did over the last 2 decades. Things are going to get more complex for them not less.

Actually everyone I know of become super rich after their land/home is taken by the government, at least in some Suburban areas of tier 2 cities. Nowadays it’s a big deal for the local officials if something went wrong (eg someone injures) during the development process so they normally will negotiate

How do you know what the truth is - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_in_China

Nope I know, around 2010 my grandma’s sister insisted not moving out until she got paid another half million dollars (yes USD) and no official/police dared to move this old lady. Of course she got another group of old grandma and grandpas whose health condition aren’t so well and it’s Beijing

It’s called “nail resident” in China. Such story is quite common and unless you are alone force removal isn’t implemented that often. Honestly just call grandpa and let him rest in bed, nobody dares move him

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