The Millennial Urban Lifestyle Is About to Get More Expensive

I think Thompson is correct on what's likely to happen at the company level but fails to consider the elasticity of demand at the consumer level.

As an anecdotal example, Uber Eats/Grubhub/Seamless fees are a material portion of total ticket price in DC (which seems to be different in other cities). They are also rarely subsidized for customers here. I am still eating at the same restaurants and probably get take-out just as much as a New Yorker where delivery is way more common - but I just walk over to pick it up.

Similarly, when Uber is surging, I take the bus or the metro.

Part of what makes cities so appealing is the diversity of options. If consumer-tech-based apps get more expensive, there are actually alternatives to literally all of them. I don't need a Peloton - I can just get a gym membership somewhere. Or buy a bike.

100% agree that Millennials are likely about to change their lifestyle options. But not certain that "change" directly equates to "accept higher prices."

>Outside analysts will gasp and marvel: This meal-kit thing is on fire! But look closer: If it costs $500 to add a new user, and the typical marginal user—like you—only spends $400 on meal kits, there is no path to profitability. The road leads to the red.

Having worked for a "start-up" called Imperfect Produce, which delivers fresh-ish organic produce to your doorstep, I realize many of these companies (which tend to operate on a $X/mo subscription basis are not built to last). Imperfect Produce is a gimmick that brands itself as a convenience service to reduce food waste. Maybe it's affordable for 2, 3, or 4 months, but once your average consumer finds themselves a bit cash-strapped, the gimmick is the first thing to be cut. And back to the grocery store/farmer's market/Big Lots they will go.

If you want to know whether WeWork, Ubereats, or Wag are built to last, ask yourself whether they've revolutionized something, or if they're a gimmick. People see through gimmicks, especially once their car needs work, or rent's gone up.

What's the difference between "urban lifestyle" and "millennial urban lifestyle"? As far as I can tell, "millennial" is just a euphemism for a young, white person who is not a plumber or a welder or a cop, but would probably be a lot better off if they were.

To believe that every individual living in the city who falls between the ages of 23 and 38 would somehow be affected by the shuttering of Blue Apron, Postmates, WeWork, Uber, or Lime completely misunderstands the lifestyle of a millennial living in any urban center in the United States.

So an app doesn't provide me a credit to go eat at a particular restaurant. Do you know how many restaurants, bars, stores, coworking spaces, transit options, and services I have access to living in the city? That's part and parcel why most people in that demographic are moving back into cities...

Such a bad example. Just because a company is currently spending $460 on advertising to make $400 doesn't mean they can't one day spend less on advertising. Blue apron is spending so much on advertising so they can become ubiquitous and they don't have to spend so much money on advertising. That's like saying an electric car company can never become profitable because they spend so much money making electric cars. They're going to get cheaper eventually and they need to take losses for a bit.