Instead, I think de-noising based on machine-learning will be the crucial factor for real-time raytracing, as Nvidia has been showing.
I think a coming advancement will be in dispatching rays based on ML too. That is, economically deciding where to cast rays, based on feedback from the de-noiser.
http://www.realtimerendering.com/raytracinggems/unofficial_R... [33MB PDF]
It sheds light on some ray tracing techniques with the focus on the new RTX API with DirectX12
Real time rendering portal page generally my goto for checking out new stuff in graphics and now they have a Raytracing section https://www.realtimerendering.com/raytracing.html
I am on phone right now, and will try to put more material as soon as I get back to my workstation!
Edit: Courtesy Onion2k
Real-time raytracing is usable in games today. https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/quake-ii-rtx-ray-t...