Ovum Analysts: iPad Will Be Surpassed by Google by 2015 | Hacker News Reader

Ovum Analysts: iPad Will Be Surpassed by Google by 2015

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8 pointssolipsist12 comments

Unless Google starts making tablet hardware by then and does an amazing job of selling it, what the analyst is actually predicting is that by 2015, the combined sales of dozens of Apple competitors will be slightly ahead of Apple's sales.

Assuming he's right--so what? It would be at least as accurate to headline the analysts prediction as "By 2015, Apple will still be the dominant tablet maker by far".

Is Gruber trolling on purpose? His posts that make it to the HN always turn into flamewars. Why is everyone here so interested in what he has to say?

Exactly. I don't even need to read Gruber any more because I invariably already know where he comes down on any given Apple issue. Wake me when Gruber makes a post that isn't pornographically pro-Apple.

Ovum may have been wrong on the IPhone but that doesn't mean that Android tablets would not outsell the IPad by 2015.

Remember, a lot of people back in 2008 were saying that it will take a long time for Android to surpass the IPhone. It took Android only about 2 years to achieve that.

Ovum may have been wrong on the IPhone but that doesn't mean that Android tablets would not outsell the IPad by 2015.

Indeed. This is nothing more than an ad hominem on Ovum. It does have some verifiable truth, but nothing that helps us judge how well Ovum can predict the future. N=1, and we aren't told how many other of Ovum's earlier predictions he checked. So, all we learn from it is that Ovum has not always made perfect predictions.

tl;dr Pundit says Google tablets will outnumber iPads in 2015, Gruber implies that they might not.

This is not news.

While this may not be news, HN welcomes submissions of other types as well. Most of us would agree that interpretations or analyses are acceptable. Even if those analyses are only a few words, they are analyses nevertheless.

I don't see Android tablets taking off as quickly as Android SmartPhones did. There are more credible competitors on the horizon. Most of the companies that totally missed the boat on competing with the iPhone are in a much better position today. HP/Palm & RIM of course but also Microsoft who I think has an opportunity to make inroads in the tablet-as-productivity-tool market someday. Any of these companies could stand to capitalize on Google's cat-herding problem or Apple's authoritarian pitfalls. Android/iOS will probably still be the big targets but I don't see the others being such distant competitors this time around.

I remember when the iPad first came out and many predicted failure. Who wants a big iPhone? That's was a typical question.

Less than a year later the debate is about which tablet will win.

I'm an android fanboy, and I'm still having a hard time understanding the need for a tablet form factor without something similar to the now canceled windows courier interface....

For me it's a laptop, desktop replacement. I don't do much content creation outside of work on a computer so I don't need those form factors and I like the portability, video capabilities, and being able to read books from it.

The Courier....that was the only Microsoft product I was ever excited about. I can't believe they killed it though. They are blinded by Apple.

I thought Android tablets sales were already at 25% last quarter. It wouldn't particularly shock me if they had 36% (and Apple had 35%) in four years time.

But since the introduction and success of the iPad seems to have been the trigger for all of Microsoft's partners to think they can finally make a go of a linux-based OS I personally would wait for the dust to settle before making any predictions.

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