Brexit Deal Agreed | Hacker News Reader

Brexit Deal Agreed

bbc.com

18 pointsmarkoa6 comments

The DUP are against it. Britain will only leave with a deal if Parliament vote for it (They voted down Theresa May's deal three times). What happens if they don't vote for it is the Boris Johnson will, by law, be forced to ask for an extension. He must accept whatever extension the EU propose. However, it's likely to get more 'interesting' than that.

I've found these flow diagrams very helpful with understanding the process, but it hasn't been updated in a week: https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/

Jean-Claude Juncker has ruled out an extension to the Brexit deal. "Mr Juncker said: "He and myself don't think it's possible to give another prolongation. There will be no other."

This means (probably, given the time period) either acceptance of the deal or leaving without a deal irrespective of the UK Parliament.

Theresa May had a deal agreed with the EU, and one that was softer than this. The DUP hasn't agreed to it, and there's no indication it can get through Parliament. If it does, it could have a confirmatory referendum attached.

Not only that, but there's so little time until Parliament's potential vote on this on Saturday that there will be very little scrutiny on what it contains.

The mooted deal is also contrary to Boris Johnson's previous statements on border restrictions AND I believe it still has to be ratified by the EU before 31st October which means a short extension is still likely.

This shit-show still has a long way to go.

Not to mention that even if the deal does go through, that's not Brexit "done". There are years of negotiations that need to happen to get the UK back on the same footing as we were pre-Brexit.

Here's the text of the deal:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_...

From the first paragraphs:

The two sides have been working on the legal text of a deal, but it will still need the approval of both the UK and European parliaments.

The DUP has cast doubt on its success, saying they still cannot support it.

'The decision would be based on a simple majority, rather than requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists to support the rules in order for them to pass"

Would this mean that the DUP cannot effectively veto the whole deal, or just future decisions in NI?

It just applies to the special provisions relating to NI and if I am reading it correctly the first opportunity to vote would be just before 4 years after the end of the transition period. The next vote would be in another 4 years if the decision is made by a simple majority or 8 years if it has cross community support.

And on the big issue of what happens if Stormont isn't in session to vote (maybe the most likely possibility), the UK is also supposed to come up with an "alternative democratic consent process" according to the "unilateral declaration" that the agreement requires (:/). Nothing else is specified about that alternative process except that Stormont take priority if possible. The wording of the agreement indicates that a vote (of some sort) must happen for the NI status to change. The "unilateral declaration" also specifies that if a vote to continue the agreement does not have cross-community support then there will be an "independent review" lasting no more than two years to attempt to find changes that would have cross-community agreement.

The two documents are available at (particularly Article 18 on page 15 in the first document):

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/r...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

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