Americans Now Need at Least $500k a Year to Enter Top 1%
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/table...
Interestingly, 0.1% 'only' owns $45mil, and 0.01% owns $111 mil. It sounds rare, until 1 out of 10,000 own $111 mil.
> "For most people, their tax unit and household are the same. But there are cases where a household would include multiple tax units. When an elderly parent moves in with an adult child with kids filing taxes separately to form a three-generation household there would be multiple tax units exist in one household. The same is true when a child moves back in after college or an unmarried couple moves in together. These are groups that we probably want to think about together because they rely on each other economically. On the other hand, a group of unrelated adults living together as roommates would also count as a household."
> We might prefer tax units to households for income trend analysis because household structure is not independent of economic circumstances. For instance, adult children move back in with their parents (Gallup reported that 14 percent of 24 to 34 year olds lived with their parents in 2013 and a Pew Research Center study showed this to be increasing). Similarly, homeowners sometimes take in boarders for economic reasons. In each of those cases, the tax-unit data captures the deteriorating economic situation associated with these types of living arrangements.
> In contrast, household data captures more earners under one roof, which increases household income. Imagine a group of three graduate students living together where each makes $25,000. They would show up as three different tax units but one household making $75,000. Now image that they all got $5,000 raises and decided to get places on their own. This would show up as a 20 percent increase in their incomes by tax units, but their household incomes would have dropped by 60 percent.
Of course, in 20 years 10M will not mean as much, but nonetheless it is important to remember 20% of the population is at or near retirement age.
So someone with 500k income can be putting away 250k a year into investments, while someone with a 10 million dollar portfolio can be having 700k in gains each year, only getting taxed when they sell something.
The specific ways both are taxed or regulated depend too much on individual circumstances and governments, but the main point is you can't use a simple model that shows a 'well-off' income earner can make it into the top n% in 27 years, if the assumptions required to get that to work also gives the n% a greater or equivalent benefit.
- Estate taxes: the government wants its pound o' flesh
- Squandering: the wealth is generally gone by the 2nd or 3rd generation. I remember this from The Millionaire Next Door (W. Danko), which is from the 90's, but I haven't come across anything to date stating that the trend has been reversed.
The ultimate measure of resources is how much a person can consume a year. Income is equivalent to what you can steady-state consume. Wealth is just what you happened to save up to that point in time.
Since the wealth gap is larger than the income gap (since wealth is saved past income), the wealth gap tends to be pointed out by people who want to overemphasize inequality.
A person earning $500k/yr is reasonably likely to be a normal guy--maybe semi talented business person or tech exec paying regular income taxes (at least partly) that could quickly become broke or at least become a mere mortal again if he stopped working. I don't really have anything against this guy. He's not a pervasive driver of inequality. He's not at the tier of wealth where you're buying influence. He's likely stuck in an expensive COL place. Unlike Mr. $10M, he probably hasn't carefully shielded his funds from divorce, family, etc.
>Wealth is just what you happened to save up to that point in time.
Nobody just "happens to save up" $10m. You either inherited it, lucked into it or grinded for years or (more likely) decades with the express aim of a payday (and you got lucky enough to get one).
Median wealth in the US ~97k. It’s quite stunning one could think a society would work with the 50-percentile being zero.
Also, note that this figure varies considerably by age and education, as you might expect.
[1] - https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/how-your-net-worth-compar...
That sounds way more alarming than whatever the median income is.
> the top income earners clearly have better lives than the low income earners, since the top income earners can consume more.
The top wealth owners clearly have better lives than low wealth owners because the former don't have to work, yet make more money and pay less in taxes than everyone else.
You haven't made a convincing case for why wealth shouldn't get more attention than income (or at least why it shouldn't get more attention, since the dialogue among politicians and in the media seems to exclusively focus on income despite income taxes being significantly higher than capital gains taxes).
E.g. if you needed less to join the top 1%, then it could be suggested that the gap is increasing. If you need more... well, it could just as easily follow that the bottom 99% percent have merely moved closer to the top 1%, effectively raising the bar (which, as an arbitrary point, shifts all the time anyways).
That said, it could be argued the other way - but the evidence for either direction is lacking. Because the issue is being raised by people who tend to overemphasize inequality, I tend to lean the opposite direction - perhaps we should re-evaluate the way we define upper and lower class.
For example, if you have a $10M net-worth, according to Gabriel Zucman & Thomas Piketty, you get higher returns on average than the little guy. Not sure the exact number, but let's say an ~8% return on average (believe it's higher).
You would make ~$800K a year in "capital gains" and pay $133K in federal taxes. If you earned $500k in income, you'd pay ~$164K in federal taxes. You'd pay another ~$35k+ in states most people live in for about a 39.8% tax rate. Not to mention, your employer is paying another 5% in payroll taxes to employ you. So, really, it's a 44.8% tax.
But if your income comes from "capital gains" instead of working, you'd pay less than half that percentage in tax -- at 16.25%.
Why is there a distinction between "capital gains" and dividends and fixed income? Because only the very wealthy get most of their income from capital gains.
Even people with $1-5M in wealth... they're mostly the people that worked really hard and still got a little lucky with their investments. They're almost all old. They've paid off their house. So... 1) most of their wealth is tied up in their house, and 2) most of what's left over is tied up in fixed income like bonds -- which are taxed as "income" and not "capital gains".
Capital gains are income and reported on Form 1040. What they are not is "ordinary income" subject to the income tax table. A person with $700k on capital gains is well inside the top 1% of income.
The complaint at issue is that a passive investor who happened to have 10 million dollars that they inherited at 30, sticks it in betterment for 50 years while drawing a top 1% of income 380k for expenses ( accounting for tax rate ) will eventually have 130 million dollars. They can easily pass this amount down to children at estate tax rates to enable the next generation to do nothing as well, or they could use any one of a number of tax sheltering methods to avoid or defray the estate tax as well.
Generational wealth, or "idle wealth" has been a concern in the US from Thomas Jefferson onward - capital gains taxes are merely one mechanism to restrict it.
I'm not wading into that debate. I'm just concerned with accurate use of terminology, as multiple people in this discussion seem to be playing fast-and-loose with it.
(Ignoring state incomes tax of course. Since I live in Texas, I’m lucky enough to do that).
A single person in San Fransisco has a cost of living of $1125.83 without rent, according to numbeo (whatever that is). Median rent in San Fransisco is $3700 for a one bedroom.
That leaves a measly $230,736 of post-tax, post-living expenses money. Assuming this person does nothing more than hide a monotonically increasing pile of cash under a mattress, it takes just over 43 years to amass $10,000,000.
Presumably this financial cretan started working right after college, at the age of 22. This means they've acquired the full sum at the age of 65, which is not an uncommon retirement age. Cuts close, but checks out.
An inflation adjusted long-term trend is over 7%.
I'm lucky enough to be making ~$400k at 30. At 21, I was lucky enough to be making $65k. Virtually no one starts off making $500k. Even if you start at the top 1% of income earners and stay there your entire life, live relatively frugally, never have kids, never take a break from work, and invest well -- even then, you're still unlikely to accrue $10M in wealth.
I think the high cost of living in San Fransisco was a reasonable assumption for someone in the top 1% of income. I think the complete absence of investment in my analysis more than makes up for a flat career. It's not even clear that modeling a flat career growth increases the number, since income tends to peak around 48.
In coastal cities, a two income household making 250k each is not absurd, and can certainly happen with two doctors, lawyers, or even software developers.
I'd much rather see metrics normalized by the local household income, which would be much more representative of relative inequality.
lol. really? what software devs are making 250k a year?
http://visadoor.com/greencards/index?company=Netflix&job=&co...
https://www.levels.fyi/?compare=Netflix&track=Software%20Eng...
Netflix is known to pay at the top of market, so the highest few compensations there being >$350k make at least a little sense.
Filter the visadoor results with job=software to see only the software developer salaries. These range from $280K to $850K, have a mean of $373K, a median $370K, 24 of 66 are at $400K and above.
This is very much the same ballpark as the self reported average salary of $433K on levels.fyi (I'd expect PERM figures to be slightly lower than average for the company as a whole since I presume they would normally be filed in the first year of employment.)
This strongly suggests to me that the levels.fyi self reported salaries for other companies are also ballpark correct.
> Netflix is known to pay at the top of market, so the highest few compensations there being >$350k make at least a little sense.
47 of 66 in the visadoor figures make $350 and above. While I would expect Netflix's average to be higher than other comparable companies this is because it hires only at Senior Software Developer level and above. Facebook and Google certainly pay their senior and above developers in the Bay Area similarly, albeit with a different RSU/salary mix.
(Well not me, but..)
In NYC a senior dev makes that much or more in finance, and in a startup probably closer to 140-160 with bonus and fuzzy-numbered stock options. I don't count my stock options ("units") as anything worth anything at this point, not because I'm cynical but because there's no clear valuation.
All things considered I'm suddenly feeling underpaid - I know many quite senior folks barely breaking that.
We aren't talking about stock options, we are talking about concrete RSUs with real valuations.
A Staff Engineer at Google can easily be vesting $200k in stocks alone each year.
It's true that they make a lot of money, so do the owner of a SME or a director in a large organization. It's not a position most employees will ever attain in their lifetime.
That's true for non-public companies, but stock options at a publicly traded company like Google or Apple are much easier to value.
Most of the time it's due to having some leverage (multiple FAANG+ offers).
the SWE ladder requires/expects for an L3 to get to L4 by makes no such requirement to ever get to L5.
Also career and personal skill wise, it's good to see how other companies work. Pay is in many ways determined by your negotiation skills, and that is empowered by creating better BATNAs via interview skill.
If you don't mind, can you please share how much net you project to save this year after all taxes and expenses? Sorry if this is a little weird but as a poor person I'd imagine expenses to go up with higher income for ordinary people resulting in not that much (proportionately) savings.
$28.6k - 401k contributions & match
$112k - RSUs after tax
$14k - Monthly emergency fund contributions from paycheck (yearly total)
~$16k - Bonus after tax
My expenses really haven’t increased in line with the compensation. The picture would look different if I had a family, but I’m in my late 20s. I suppose I could eat high quality sushi daily, but I’ll settle for weekly.
My salary is $160K (that’s the max your salary can be at Amazon). The rest of my compensation (remaining ~$160k) is in restricted stock unit vests. I save 100% of that $160K after taxes. I max out my 401K from my salary. I also save 30-40% of each paycheck.
My husband and I don’t eat out 11 months of the year. The 12 month is a vacation where we travel within the US for a week vacation. Even then, we don’t go to expensive restaurants and will look for good deals... I mean my husband will open the McDonalds app on his phone to get a buy 1 get 1 Big Mac coupon. We don’t spend eating out... it is unhealthy and a bad habit.
We don’t have a car - so living in downtown Seattle, no expensive car tabs or parking. Also no fuel costs or car insurance payments. We paid off student loans and so there’s no debt. We pay for that with high rent ($2400/month excluding utilities).
Our only splurge is we have Netflix, Amazon Prime, Spotify, and we might get Disney’s new service. Our apartment is upscale (by our standard). Our furniture is nicer.
You called yourself a poor person - I’m sure you know this, but income is not a measure of wealth. We’ve built up some investments and liquid savings over the years, but I know coworkers from previous teams and other friends who earn just as much or more than us but also have $15K/month mortgages and are house broke or have expensive drinking or general spending habits where they end up saving practically nothing.
I was making a lot less not long ago. Then I went to an interview, knocked it out of the park, and when the ask TC reqs I just said $250 would work, and they made it happen. This is not in SF-area or NYC either.
~150k salary
~15k bonus
~100k stock
Good 401k match
This is the average of anecdotal evidence I have seen from friends and acquaintances with around your experience.
If your skills and what's shiny in the market right now are all concentric, you can add 100k's on top. (Just left FB on the internal React team? Been on Netflix's recommendation model team? SRE working with core Kubernetes? Cha-ching!)
I'm trying to work toward the tech-adjacent side because developer comp tops out around 150k or 160k total in my area—and the top end of that's usually got one foot in management. Remote comp seems similar, unless you can do the hardcore algo interview thing—and even some of those don't pay especially well, if they're offering remote and feel like they're already doing you some kind of favor.
But this is actually rare across the industry as a whole in the US, and extremely rare when considering other countries. It's nowhere near as common as the heavily skewed HN comments will make you believe.
This isn't unusual at all for top talent.
Get promoted once at google / Facebook and you should be there. Promoted again and you’ll be 300-350k
In the San Francisco area, a bit over $500k is the mean income of the top 5% of households, so while it's not too 1% locally, it still in a fairly narrow slice at the top.
https://statisticalatlas.com/metro-area/California/San-Franc...
It’s not really relative. $500k HHI in Manhattan is a ridiculous amount of money that lets you live a ridiculous life of luxury, whether you realize it or not.
Wealthy elites really like to make this false “relativity” argument, where $500,000 isn’t “that much” because everything in New York is so expensive… but they ignore the simple fact that they get to live in New York and have access to everything that entails. Being able to live in New York at all is something many fantasize about. It’s part of why so many TV shows are based in New York. For most, it’s a fanciful life beyond their reach.
$500k is $500k. It gets you $500k worth of stuff. That $500k of stuff may be in the form of material items, access or lifestyle (e.g. weather). The fake relatively argument comes in when you only compare material items and selectively ignore everything else to make a false argument and appear like less of an elitists than you are. But $500k will get you EQUALLY absurd lifestyles in Manhattan or Kansas. In one, you get to live the high life in the middle of New York, with access to basically everything. In the other, you live in the midst of nothing, but with a pool that might qualify as a theme park and a fleet of exotic cars.
In either case, these are lifestyles only available to the 1%.
This is why the 99% stuff misses the mark. That 1% is the best of us; our doctors, lawyers, successful small business owners, etc. People who drive the economy and create outsized value through specialized labor that is rightfully compensated. The true problem in our society is the 0.01%. There is a tiny portion of these that are the Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerbergs who are self made. But the vast majority of them are the intergenerational wealth holders whose fortunes have simply continued to compound and provide them with an unnatural amount of power influence that is completely undeserved. It's why a wealth tax is so neccessary in this country, and if properly implemented could completely absolve the need for income tax.
I don’t care what they started with - I care what they did with it.
For instance, if you started with 10MM and built a billion dollar company, great.
But if you started with 1MM and turned it into 1MM, then you really didn’t help out at all.
But I wonder (and it's only a thought based on some observations that I've had over the years) how large the talent pool is. Because "talent" in starting a business is so much more than just the knowledge to do the work, or the capital to start it...
For instance, I've started a few businesses. All but the current one closed at roughly breakeven.
My current business has required my life savings and selling my house, but we are finally (more than 3 years!) starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. We're profitable, but I'm not making 6-figures yet. I should be by tax day next year, and hopefully between 150-200K by the end of next year. But interestingly, based on our trajectory, the growth curve is getting steeper, which is awesome, and should top out in the low 7 figures within 5 years or so.
However, there have been several (more than I can count) strong moments of doubt, where I've just wanted to quit. It's been really, really freaking hard. My wife works full time, and that's paid the bills, but the stress has been insane. (with kids, it's not just me - I have to make sure I don't tank the whole family)
This is just one data point (I'm skipping the others for brevity), but the stuff that it takes to start a business that actually generates free cash flow is really unusual. I know other people who've started businesses and shut them down because they didn't want to make the sacrifices. Our cars are old, we sold our house, I dipped into my IRA even. Most people don't have that kind of drive (or is it insanity?). Heck, there have been days recently where I question if I can get through the next 6 months.
So "talent" in starting a business is very different from talent in being good at work. And that kind of talent I think is rare, probably because the risks and sacrifices in many cases are just several standard deviations from the norm. Or maybe I've been doing this long enough where I've become deluded - I don't really know anymore.
Anyway, hope this adds to the conversation somewhat.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisakroll/2018/10/03/the-forbe...
The companies - both public and private - that can contain or produce that level of wealth are very well known and almost impossible to hide. It's rare for Forbes or Bloomberg to find new stray billionaires that had been hiding for a long time. It does happen [1], it's just quite rare, especially versus the size of the known list. You don't magically quietly generate or inherit billions in wealth, you move things when you do that and it makes headlines (either over time or when a liquidity event occurs), it garners a lot of attention.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2019/02/19/the-great...
here is the full list of the forbes 400: https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/
The fact is that the vast majority of people in above the 5% mark come from comfortable families. This would be fine, except that 1) they live in and influence a society where many live in exceedingly uncomfortable circumstances, and 2) instead of recognizing this as a moral travesty and acting accordingly, they hoard not only resources but the opportunity to better oneself.
We passed the point where "personal responsibility" was a reasonable justification for systemic suffering when we stopped hunting with rocks. Much of civilized history has been marked by the apparent ability to provide generally for the populace and the baffling decision not to. I don't think it's radical to say that we're discussing a manifestation of this phenomenon, more than anything else.
I guess you would have to define the threshold of “absurd,” but It’s a pretty big deviation from the median in Los Angeles and New York, where the median incomes are between 60-65K. In SF, you’re talking two people both making more than double the median (about 110K)
Considering things like the cost of things like housing in these places, the inequality seems massive anyway you slice it.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/losangelescount...
https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/income-taxes/med_hhold_i...
The median income, for a college graduate, nationally is >$90K. A lot of the median income stats are meaningless once you consider only the educated slices of the workforce.
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United...
> The top 1% earned 21% of the country’s income, and paid 38.5% of federal individual income taxes. The top 1% paid a greater share of income tax to the U.S. Treasury than the bottom 90% combined (29.9%).
Basically, only the top 1% can buy homes in the Bay Area.
This is a good comparison for this:
https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-by-age-calculator/
People at age 25 year olds are likely to make half of 35 year olds. But 45 year olds in the top 1% are roughly equal to the 35 year olds (no real increase).
You only make money by taking it from someone else. Sure the reserve can print more money but that only leads to currency devaluation on a macro level which on a whole reduces purchasing power of the society.
You can't really address income inequality without fundamentally reshaping society.
This is false. Money is an expression of labor and is exchanged in return for labor or the product of someone else’s labor. Totally dismissing that the exchange of money requires both parties to gain something is a deceptive (and in my opinion, immoral) trend.
When my money “grows” in the stock market. It isn’t because I took money from another person. It is not a zero-sum game.
It's like buying a home in San Francisco -- it's not adding value that makes your wealth go up, it's the fact that other people want what you have and you got there first. And there's a healthy helping of government interference making sure that your stake is protected against outsiders.
Until recently, there was no easy way to transfer wealth intertemporally -- livestock died, grain spoiled, precious metals got stolen, land got invaded, etc.
The faith that people have in the stock market -- that they can buy something now and sell it in 50 years with very low frictional costs, allows the market to function, which ultimately lowers the cost of acquiring and deploying capital. This also ensures that capital is matched to risk tolerance, and that capital is deployed most effectively.
Imagine if each VC individually had to find a retail buyer for their shares.
Income is typically tied to hard currency.
When you make money in the stock market, you invested in a business, one that would supply a goods or services (or a derivative), of which requires taking someone else's money in exchange for that good or service.
It's bad because happiness has a logarithmic dependence on income. A system that permits this amount of wealth concentration is isomorphic to one that actively creates misery.
There are other factors to consider, mean wealth, median wealth, quality of life, etc.
I’d rather live in a hypothetical country with $1M of purchasing power where 1% had $1B than a hypothetical country with $500k where 1% had $1M.
High inequality does not mean low quality of life. Just take a look at the inequality of the US vs the inequality of third world countries. The US has higher inequality but also higher quality of life.
Money is just an accounting for the actual goods and services the economy provides. There are only so many materials and laborers available at any one time and your wealth determines who gets access to them. If you buy $1 billion in chairs, other people will have to forgo things made from wood (or forgo other things to attract new lumberjacks). Your wealth represents your power to bid against them and win.
I think the simple view is wealth is zero sum. I have a pie and there’s only eight pieces. If I have seven pieces then you can only have one. Easy enough to split the pie and we both have equal amounts. But it’s not possible for you to have more pie without me having less.
In the real world it is possible to create value. And the things human value are intangible. So if you paint pictures and I sing songs, you paint 5 pictures, I sing you five songs we are both happier and have more value. I can’t paint so I value a painting at 100 whuffie. You can’t sing so you value songs at 100 whuffie.
In economics they can this guns and butter and use it as an example of trade increasing wealth.
If country X is really good at making guns but marginal at making butter and country Y is really good at making butter but marginal at guns they have to allocate labor to make both since everyone needs guns and butter. So each country makes $100 worth of goods at the total value of $200. However if country X only made guns and Y only made butter they could exert the same labor but have $400 in total value. Neither country is worse off.
This works in part because money is imaginary to reflect how people value things.
This works more with no tangible things that can be reproduced so it’s quite possible for someone to make a trillion dollars worth of software without taking a trillion dollars away from somewhere.
[0] https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microec...
However, getting paid in a currency is directly limited by total currency in circulation. Of the total items of wealth in the world, if more and more currency is hoarded at the top 1%, only the top 1% can afford the wealth created by the rest.
In other worlds, wealth is increasing but the purchasing power of it is not reaching everyone proportional to the wealth they are creating.
In the scenario I described above each country could spend all their wealth if they do desired. Nations constantly create money and handle deposits so even if they wanted it all in cash that they never spend (which no one does) they could do that in both the $100 and $200 scenario because as nations they can create currency. If the currency is backed by wealth of nations then inflation is less (ie, a country printing $100 with $1 in wealth is in trouble, but a country printing $100 with $100 in wealth is less in trouble).
Fortunately, while these concepts are a little non-intuitive, it’s possible to study, learn, and use them to influence our decision. Or to help me decrease confusion on the relationship of purchasing power and wealth.
All of this still isn't related to the article which is talking about unequal distribution of wealth.
Sure one way to solve this unequal distribution is handing more money to poor directly by printing, but thats bound to cause inflation.
There's research to indicate that it does, once you've surpassed a certain level of wealth. I've been reading Utopia For Realists, which does a very readable job of summarizing work on the topic, and one publication cited that is available online is:
https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/file...
I'd also suggest Sapolsky's work on the physiological effects of poverty.
I think the Buddhists might disagree.
Even in Silicon Valley, being a top manager, developer, etc. is only going to get you a very nice, comfortable life. '
The 1% wealthy you think of when you think "1%" have all gotten it the usual ways: got lucky, inherited, or shadier methods.
No, the top percentile is, not everyone. That's the problem. Income inequality is getting worse.
This one single piece of data confirms the "stagnating feeling" of many people who are not rapidly expanding their net worth-- even just maintaining it is good work these days in the face of rising costs of living.
Situation B: You have 10 guys making $100K and 90 guys making $25K.
Situation B is better and it has more inequality. That's what we're seeing the past few decades, as people leave the middle class (in an upward direction).
The situation A is actually better, for 90% of the people.
The single outlier is not relevant when it comes to buying power, he doesn't move the market upward. Housing, food and commodities are needed by everyone so it's fixed by the 99% and accessible to everyone.
On the other hand, that's a new market class when there are enough participants like example B. They're going to compete with one another to get all the nicest houses, locations, cars, food, etc... that will be adjusted higher in proportion to what they can pay.
Sure, in some markets (limited supply of housing) more money just increases prices, but that’s an exception, not the rule.
So yes. With a lower salary in a specific area, I can probably buy the same goods and services as someone with a higher salary in a different area.
I had high hopes that the advent of the Internet would allow me to go live in cheap places and still earn a comfortable income from top-tier companies.
But silly me, I work in embedded, where being close to the hardware you're developing is practically mandatory :p
There is so much difference between some capitals and their countryside nowadays, they could be different countries.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2614-22nd-St-NE-Washingto...