Gotta say though, this is one of the few times I'm glad to see someone too stupid to use proper anonymization tools.
There already have been indictments that happened to involve finding a Monero wallet on a seized computer and the state was unable to discern any information about the current balance or transactions accompanying it
Again this would be another culprit busted because of their known bitcoin transactions, and the other wallets were just found alongside. So it doesn't prove or disprove that starting with a Monero transaction would net results, but it provides an ongoing and improving degree of confidence.