> To answer your question directly: in this case study, I see no evidence that a reasonable amount of regulation on pharmaceutical pricing in the United States would have had any discouraging effect whatsoever on the development of this drug

With the benefit of hindsight? I suspect you are correct. But pharma portfolios operate on the lognormal success model of VCs. Without the blockbusters, you can’t fund “development” of the failures that could lead to another blockbuster. (Of course, much if large pharma R&D is by way of strategic partnership and acquisition.)

As to your pricing of the Humira acquisition: I personally would have included some consideration to the existing market exclusivity of the drug. The transaction price is unlikely to be just the “replacement cost”.