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Arm-chair speculating here...

I think as long as the VC investment keeps growing the layoffs won't matter much.

If the layoffs continue and VC investments steadies or declines, I don't think it takes many months until there's suddenly more supply than demand, and companies start being more selective about who they hire, and offered salaries stop increasing (and maybe even decline).

Think about it. Uber is the biggest IPO by far. They're laying off only 1000 people. Even if they're all in The Bay, and even if all the other recent IPOs go through similar (but proportional) layoffs -- you're talking about maybe 5000 layoffs max. That's a lot.

Bay Area investment in 2018 was $27.5B [1]. Nationally, since 2007 (and I pick that since it's the last peak), VC investment has increased by 11.13% per year.

If the Bay Area gets an extra ~$3B next year in VC money, that could absorb the 5000 layoffs pretty easily.

Obviously there could be any other exogenous shock that causes even more layoffs. Obviously VC investment could fall off a cliff. Obviously I can't predict the future.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-08/ventur...

In the bay area, Non-engineers, like product managers, MBA types and data analysts, etc are having a really hard time finding work (sometimes taking 1 to 3 years to find their next job!) based on what I've seen in my circle of friends. (unless your in a specialization that's in high demand like User acquisition).

It's the senior engineers (5+ years) which have multiple emails from recruiters and are in really high demand, not so much junior engineers.

Look at the last StackOverflow dev survey: the number of devs with 0-5 years of experience is almost double the number of devs with 6-10 years. That means the number of senior engineers will be increasing very rapidly over the next 5 years. You can bet it's going to be much harder to get a job in about 5 years or so, layoff or not.

>> Look at the last StackOverflow dev survey

Just looked at it.

In 2018 there were 87,259 responses and 72,688 in 2019.

Developers with less than 5 years experience were 35% in 2018 and 13.4% in 2019.

Just confirmed it, and that's super interesting. I wonder if it's due to the phrasing of the question though (how long since programming vs. how long coding professionally).

For 2019 I see the following:

Less than 5 years 41% 5-10 years 27% 10-15 years 14%

As you can see, there has been a massive supply increase of junior engineers (probably entering the industry). And this massive increase will in a few years result in a massive increase in senior engineers. Right now being a senior engineer is still a huge advantage but that will diminish quickly over time.

Personal anecdote, at 12+ years in the industry I don't really go to StackOverflow anymore so I wouldn't have even seen the survey. The kind of questions I Google now are most often answered only in Github Issues.

As my sibling poster indicates, the SO survey is a convenience sample not a census of coders. If you look at the 2016 survey, the 0-5 years experience cohort is larger (50.3%) than than it is in 2019, so I am not sure we can make those kinds of conclusions about the wider industry.

data analysts as in data scientists?

no, data analysts as in the ones who take data exports and excel files and turn them into meaningful insights. Analyzing retention for various cohorts, analyzing revenue, engagement, etc. Data analysts mostly use SQL and maybe some Python to extract insights.

data scientists is a step up from that, and typically requires a PHD and will utilize more sophisticated statistical models.

Your friends are not really good at looking for jobs if they are taking that long. Market for PMs and data analysts is absolutely red hot.

If it's harder to find a job in the next five years as a senior engineer, it will likely be because the economy is in a recession or because of simple reversion to the mean, not because of too many entry-level engineers entering the workforce. If there was any time when entry-level engineers were flooding the market, it was during, like, 2013, when Google and Facebook were hiring like crazy.

The unemployment statistics don't match what you're saying here, at all.

are there unemployment statistics for software engineers? The overall unemployment statistics are probably way off from the subset of professionals and or software engineers.

No, they aren't. The unemployment rate for software engineers was 2.2 percent in 2013 [1].

[1]: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-ste...

> That means the number of senior engineers will be increasing very rapidly over the next 5 years.

In my local job market I've seen this acting like a wave carrying people with the right number of years, jobs that once asked for 5 years experience will now ask for 8 or 10 because they can. Javascript is probably the only notable tech stack that's somewhat new and missing people with those requirements. This obviously sucks for the people who missed that wave, but if the same plays out in SV I'd expect the seniors now to be just as much in demand 6-10 years from now.

> That means the number of senior engineers will be increasing very rapidly over the next 5 years

"Years since graduating" != "progress to senior engineer"

Plenty of people who graduated a few decades ago never reach a senior level. It is not about simply about whiling the time away until you have "10 years of job experience"

This is purely anecdotal, but I worked at Uber and just looking through the ex-Uber alumni groups I can see a lot of people who I know worked in SF have moved elsewhere (to NYC, LA, Austin, etc.) Also, Uber's workforce is more "decentralized" than most and more spread out throughout the country. I would guess fewer than half of the layoffs were in the Bay Area, especially if this impacted ATG which has a large presence in Pittsburg.

We just goes from one fad to another. These people will all just get jobs at a scooter company or whatever comes next.

You get used to it after being in the startup scene for even a few years. Everyone just bounces around to whatever nonsense gets financed.

The companies that tend to have a harder time hiring and may benefit from these layoffs I think are more traditional companies that have SV outposts.

Comcast, Samsung, Microsoft, Clorox, Walmart, Bank of America heck Honda and other Auto manufacturers have large presences in this area and traditionally are not as attractive to a lot of talented engineers as startups or the FANG companies. I'd think that you'd see these guys start picking up a lot of the excess talent if the market started getting flooded.

There's a ton of slack here that would gobble up talent outside of the traditional VC funded group. They're good jobs too if you're looking for stability.

3-5 emails a day is nothing special. Recruiters spam your inbox and phone no matter where you live.

I live in NJ and work in NY, and I consider 5 emails a week busy.

I live in London, 5 messages/day on LinkedIn is my average. I am 28. They probably mostly match Python and Django keywords on my CV, but I've also got other experience.

When is the last time you updated your resume somewhere? A recent upload could get you 50 VM/emails a day, no exaggeration. I'm almost 5 years out from the last job search with almost nothing on my linked and 15-20 contacts a week seems average now

I keep my LinkedIn profile up-to-date, but otherwise I don't publish my resume anymore. Nearly all the hits I get are LinkedIn, mixed with a few calls based on seriously out-of-date versions of my resume.

In Seattle I get maybe 1 per day average. Pretty in-demand skillset too. I almost never reply so maybe they've given up. The volume probably depends on how much "SEO" you wanna put into your Linkedin and online presence.

Honest question: Why don't large scale acqui-hires happen in these situations? Often hiring is one of the top challenges for these companies. They go through 100s of resumes and interview dozens just for each role. Times that by 300+ people and it’s an incredible amount of effort and value here. So to fire 300+ people is years and years worth of human lives that went into hiring that many top tier tech employees.

I’m sure Google or someone would pay a TON of money to have them all sent down to Mountain View for the day to do a huge round of interviewing. The same way they do for smaller-scale startup acqui-hires.

Mass firings are seen as a opportunity to get rid of your "worst" employees because you have strong plausible deniability if the reason for firing is anything other then the massive layoff. Employee trying to start a union? Raising politically sensitive issues? Under-performing? Questioning management? Negative personality? Taking too many days off? Not popular on your team? Companies are aware of this and it contributes strongly to the negative signal assigned to be involved in a mass layoff.

> Across three rounds, Uber has let go ~1000 people. I have no idea how many are in the Bay Area, but to pick a random number and say "half," that's ~500 new people in the labor market who are probably well qualified for the rest of the open jobs.

It doesn't affect the point you are making, but I believe the first big round of layoffs they did (about 400 I think?) were mainly marketing folks. I could be wrong, but I feel like those positions are not quite as in demand as tech workers in the bay area.

Its certainly not enough to tip anything yet. Companies other than Facebook/Google/Apple are still blocked on their capabilities by their engineering workforce (in terms of size and skillset).

Eventually it will get there, but that will come coupled with an overall economic recession. While there's some instability with failed VC companies, there's still WAY too much capital in the system to not keep everyone employed for a long while, as long as there is even the chance of investments panning out.

There is already an oversupply of engineering talent outside of very specialized work and senior talent. The constant hiring is simply because a better engineer is fairly easy to measure once they've been on the job for a while so it's smart to keep hiring better engineers and letting go of the ones that are not as good as the new ones.

Aren't we already there?

With the looming fear of recession in near term, fully expect hardship ahead.