> the likelihood that the URL you happen to be surfing is both a phishing URL to begin with and one of the ones that just appeared since the last delta download you did, compared to the likelihood that it's one of those already in the entire phishing URL database you've already downloaded. I'd expect those odds to be very low.
Ignoring the first condition (otherwise why bother with a list at all)... Consider that this information is very transient (average 15hrs), this is pretty simple: deltaT / 54000
This is still horrible, because your safety is determined by how frequently you can sync with the DB.
> If a user only downloads the deltas periodically they'd risk being out of sync with the master list (which might not be updated even once a month or at all, for all we know).
Being updated monthly doesn't match the statistic of average 15hr lifecycle, because it would be useless after that length of time. And while I don't claim to know 15hrs as a fact, it is intuitive that the average will become ever shorter as malicious URL checkers become updated ever faster.
> but that's the price they'd need to pay to have to send any information about their web browsing to parties they don't trust.
Full URL information need not be sent, a hash of the URL domain and path would probably suffice... if that's not enough then it's a dilemma, but that doesn't make continuous syncing a good or fail safe replacement.