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The big threat there isn't Motorola or Samsung figuring out a way to ship phones around the world more efficiently -- it's local competitors in emerging markets. For example, India-based Micromax is gaining serious market share in the country at Nokia's expense.

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This is not true. Micromax phones are just re-branded chinese/korean knockoff phones. There was a craze for these phone two years back because of dual-sim capability. Now everybody realized that the quality is very bad and started buying nokia/samsung/lg dual-sim phones instead.

Lots of local brands have suddenly gained some traction in Indian market. Mostly because of their cheap prices (Micromaxx brought out an Android one for $130!).

Also, if you look at the PR of these new mobile companies, they are mostly targeted at the people living in rural areas. So, they are in fact eating a part of Nokia's pie, but a final verdict can be said only a couple of years later. Micromaxx is going public soon, so, lets wait and see how many of them make it.

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