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Betting that learning an app development framework plus Mandarin to sell apps on $35 phones probably isn't the best strategy for developers is more reasonable though.

Why not? Long before the iPhone, several people got rich by selling J2ME apps to low end phones.

Can you name one or two J2ME apps that you ever purchased? I can't and I don't know anybody who did. It was a disaster trying to publish back then.

I published a J2ME app that was bought 20000 times. I also worked for a J2ME games company for a while.

Not sure if I ever bought a J2ME app myself. But then I have only bought one app for iPhone/Android so far: Monkey Island.

China has developers that already know Mandarin.

Makes sense. But there's a difference between staying and growing, especially in financial terms. It's the reason Nokia's shares have dropped 70% in 3 years.

Android phones are getting pretty cheap, too.

I agree with that, but I'm not sure Nokia's going to remain the king of the low-end phones. The barriers to entry are lower and competition even at the low end is increasing.