Comment by JumpCrisscross | Hacker News Reader

Comment by JumpCrisscross | Hacker News Reader

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> One of the surprising things to me is how much China seems to have played their hand too early (and too strongly)

China is a dictatorship, Xi a leader for life. That dramatically changed Beijing's political profile.

Pre-Xi, one could argue China had long-term planning capacities. The rotation of leaders and intraparty competition limited corruption and promoted political fitness. Dictatorships have neither. They're cronyist, corrupt and focussed on short-term political survival.

A strategic China would have waited until 2050 to deal with Hong Kong. Instead, Xi got insecure about Winnie the Pooh or whatever. A strategic China would have slowly accumulated technology, capital and soft power. Instead, they're pivoting into a wall.

> On the one hand I think the CCP bought a dud with Chairman Xi. But maybe that’s good for the rest of us.

In the short term, sure. In the medium term, it's a security nightmare. In the long term, we're going to watch billions of peoples' humanity and productivity get squandered. That's a loss to everyone.

Good points made above. Out of curiosity, is there a route to a return of rotating leaders without a voluntary abdication by Xi?

> is there a route to a return of rotating leaders without a voluntary abdication by Xi?

History has limited examples of such peaceful (i.e. no civil war) transitions of power. (Most are from the modern era.)

My guess is the CCP’s senior guard would need to orchestrate his “illness.” But Xi has done a good job of purging the Politburo of able competition.

If I were giving this question serious study, I’d look at the PLA.

I’m not sure he’s up to the level of Stalin, but he’s sure purged many of those whom he thought might threaten his standing —most under rather made up circumstances like corruption, where you know, everyone is corrupt, but they all play the game, except if you’re out, then of course, you’re denounced, striped of property, put in jail, or worse, depending. It’s so reminiscent of soviet politicking.

There has to be a faction within the Politburo, or at least within the Central Committee, that is becoming increasingly skeptical of Xi’s hardline policies, even if all those with pre-existing loyalties were politically purged before. I suppose the question is whether they all find themselves suddenly facing corruption charges one day before they have a chance to consolidate any power.

Last good example in China was Mao, who basically had to die to lose power.

Along those same lines, I'm very interested to see which direction Russia heads after Putin kicks the bucket.

I was under the impression that Deng Xiaoping had similar levels of influence and power during his first 10 years in power and that he stepped down due to a weakened influence following Tiananmen.

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