Only because Microsoft and Apple choose not to support WebM. Prior to Google's choice, Firefox (with rather significant browser usage stats) wasn't supporting H.264 either, which kept Flash on the web. Also, people keep referring to IE, but it still needs Flash. Sure, IE9 is coming, but we'll see what the adoption rates will be like.
Point is, Google throwing out H.264 didn't change the short or medium landscape much.
> Everyone points to the GIF fiasco. The net result? PNG was born.
You completely miss the point. GIF is a lesson, and we should learn from it. More importantly, PNG wasn't adopted over night. You can't just flip a switch and make everything alright.
> If the screws are ever put to us on H.264, you'll see exactly the same thing, only quicker.
Or, you can avoid the entire problem, put effort into free formats now. Don't repeat past mistakes.
> The elephant in the room here is that the fundamental problem is software patents. They need to be completely abolished.
Yes. Supporting them doesn't help matters.