>I hope the next president is even more hardline against China than Trump.
And I asked if any other presidential candidates expressed a hardline stance against China. I don't see how that is off topic
What planet do you live on?
If he even finishes* his term that is..
Those people are still not going to respond to polls, and since they live in low-population areas, they won't affect the popular vote much, but they hit the electoral college hard.
The Dem voters in the primaries are a predictable population, and polling for primaries is relatively easier.
There's really not any evidence of this. In the rust belt states he won that turned the tide of the election, there was less turnout on both sides than previous elections. It's just that Democrat voting turnout was down even more than Republican voting turnout.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gav...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
You can see their chance of winning history in a line graph. October has a significant dip, to be sure, but it had recovered by November back to the ~30% it ultimately stayed at. Their 'polls plus' model also never dipped quite as far as the polls only model.
Regardless, the initial comment was he 'easily' has 4 more years in him. Except now he's facing impeachment, has Republican allies breaking ranks, a long list of unfulfilled campaign promises, big name televangelists saying he's in danger of losing "the mandate of heaven", more and more evidence coming out about Russian interference in the election, and facing a party that knows it must focus on states that it largely ignored. Trump won in several states with fewer votes than Romney lost with - the Democrats aren't going to ignore those states again. The Russians are unlikely to be as effective again.
I'm not saying he's going to lose - I could very well see him winning - but acting as if it is an easy thing is absolutely nuts. In a lot of ways it is a significantly worse landscape for him, with lots more room for it to get even worse.
Usually whoever keeps the economy going and doesn't harm it in anyway gets re-elected for a second term.
Since his inauguration, the S&P500 is up 27.37%. At this point during Obama's first term, the S&P500 was up 65.19%. Apples and oranges, true. Let's look at the preceding 46 months before Trump's inauguration. Over that time, the market rose 26.69%.
Anyone pretending the market under Trump is anything but "normal" is participating in partisan hackery. Don't do it.