Betelgeuse to supernova - could be any day

I think if Betelgeuse were about to explode any day now, we would be hearing a lot more from the major astronomy organizations, as Betelgeuse's supernova will be bright and fantastic.

Six months ago there was another rumor about Betelgeuse being close to supernova which Phil Plait also talked about. He doesn't seem to optimistic it will be blowing very soon, also based on the evidence that none of the higher powers are talking about it.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2010/06/01/is...

"The important thing is, one day, night will become day for several weeks on Earth."

According to Wikipedia[1] the expected visible magnitude of the supernova is around -12mag. The full moon's apparent magnitude is around -12.74mag[2]. So we'd more likely have "another moon" for some time instead of a second sun.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude

"it could also happen in a million years."

Yeah, any day now!

> Some experts have speculated Betelgeuse's explosion may cause a neutron star or result in the formation of a black hole approximately 1300 light years from Earth, but Dr Carter says it could go either way.

> "There's a reasonably even chance of a neutron star or a black hole", he says.

...Is that supposed to sound reassuring? >_<

Phil Plait had a lot of excellent comments about this recurring speculation 6 months ago: http://mblogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2010/06/01/i...

And by any day they mean any day 520 years ago.

So if we see it tomorrow, it went supernova in ~1371 AD.