In the open source world at least others get to look at the code and find (and perhaps fix) problems.
Simultaneously, we routinely find crypto flaws on black-box reviews of commercial products, sometimes even in firmware and hardware settings.
To my eyes, it's not the availability of source code that smokes out flaws like this, it's simply the incentive structure. Colin's project gets the attention of someone like Taylor Campbell, but Colin has made a name for himself and for Tarsnap. Even if your project becomes popular, if you aren't shouting from the mountaintops about your use of cryptography, you may be unlikely to garner the specific kind of attention you need.
The incentive in the private sector is to maximize profit, which means minimizing costs.
> But if you have nation-state levels of funding, you certainly can buy a system that would take serious talent and funding to break.
You might be able to build such a system, or you can buy a system that just passes all acceptance tests, which is where the incentive is (since this minimizes costs). Given that testing a cryptosystem for correctness is just about impossible, what do you suppose happens?
The best assurance that I get is when I'm told which standard implementation a product uses. If a private entity without a reputation in cryptography told you that they rolled their own, would you trust them? How many crytographers would you trust? I know whom I would, and I don't even need a full hand to count them.
It's a bit more complicated than that. Yes, >0 experts have reviewed OpenSSL code. But <1 experts have reviewed all of the OpenSSL code. Did the bits which matter to you get reviewed? Who knows...
I'm not sure I understand the question - are you suggesting that authors of open source security code are less qualified or more bug prone than those who work on closed source software?
One of the promises of open source code is fewer bugs through exposure to many eyes. That seems to be exactly how this security bug was found, according to the blog post. How long do you suppose this bug would have stayed hidden if the source were not available? Personally, I'd guess a lot longer.