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Comment by cloudwalking | Hacker News Reader

Model 3 appears to be the #6 best selling car in USA last quarter* and I don't believe there is much of any USA tax incentive anymore.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/06/tesla-model-3-6th-best-...

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Keep in mind that the best selling passenger vehicles are not called "car" in the US statistics, but "light trucks". The number of light trucks sold in September 2019 is almost three times the number of "passenger cars".

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig...

Tesla is heading that direction too with Model Y coming out next year and the truck they are expected to announce in November. This will be interesting to watch.

I can't find the right reference, but I remember that such "light trucks" (e.g. Ford F150) enjoy a different tax and tariff compared to cars, and that's why several car companies have pushed them to the market.

The tariff is on foreign imports, which results in domestic trucks being privileged over foreign ones. It has nothing to do with customers choosing light trucks over cars, and if anything, it should rather incentivize customers buying cars over trucks, as there's more competition there, and so presumably lower prices.

It's not just F150's and other "real" trucks. Car based platforms make up the bulk of SUVs now. They are only trucks in name for the purpose of gaming fuel economy regulations. The PT Cruiser was among the first to start this trend.

That really reinforces the root comment's point about fashions in vehicle choice / driving what everyone else does being the 'safe option'. The countries most similar in culture and affluence to the US don't seem to buy those passenger utility vehicles and passenger cars in nearly the same proportions, so fashion looks like a big part of vehicle choice.

Does it?

In Canada [1] -- looks like about 3 out of the top 10 models are "passenger cars".

In Australia [2] - it's the same thing. 3 out of 10 are passenger cars (and both have a top 2 being a pickup - although the .au spread isn't as wide as .ca)

Looking at models doesn't shed too much light, because some categories have their sales more concentrated across a few models than others. The post I was responding to used "The number of light trucks sold in September 2019 is almost three times the number of 'passenger cars'."

For Australia the same figure was 2.4 times ( https://www.caradvice.com.au/797477/vfacts-september-2019/ ) and 2.1 times in August - though this is only a recent change in the Australian market (passenger car sales being down considerably in 2019 versus 2018).

But yeah, the difference isn't as much as I thought it was, primarily because I didn't realise until looking into it now that crossover SUVs like RAV4s and CX-5s are considered 'light trucks' in those US figures.

There are two things that drive the popularity of small SUVs/Crossovers in the US. First, gas is cheap: $2.50 a gallon vs ~$5.50 a gallon in the EU. One can get the benefit of more space and safety without paying an energy penalty. Second, the average household size is 3.1 in the US vs 2.3 in the EU. 22% of US households have 4 or more people. There is a demand for larger cars to carry more people.

how come americans have much bigger families than europeans? is it due to a higher immigration % of the general population or do "native" americans have more children than europeans?

I was under the impression children per woman correlates pretty well to economic development.

gas is not $2.50/ga everywhere. in california it’s around $5/ga atm. i think the big difference is how spread out things are in the US vs EU. in the EU i may very well be able to go on a road trip in a electric vehicle. in the US, given how few charging stations there are this isn’t really possible.

That's sedans (a small and shrinking portion of the auto market), not vehicles. If you count passenger vehicles, the Model 3 is #27 YTD.

It's cars, not sedans.

Trucks have taken over US passenger vehicles. With consequence for pedestrian safety, parking spaces, space between vehicles on the road, and fuel consumption.

$1850 federal tax incentive, $1500 in my state. It doesn’t close the cost gap with ICE, but it sure is nice.

Note that every other auto manufacturers has multiple models that they offer in the 'upper-middle-range sedan' price range.

Tesla offers one. Of course its per-model numbers are going to be higher, compared to its marketshare.

An equivalent perspective would be that their marketshare will increase significantly when they introduce more models. An "SUV" (crossover) and a pickup.

They already have an SUV. Its called the Model X.

1. Model X sales aren't great, compared to SUV vs sedan sales for other manufactuers.

2. Other manufacturers have multiple mid-range sedan models. Honda has the Civic, the Insight, the Accord, the Clarity, and the Fit hatchback. Their sales are being split across five different low-mid-range models. Tesla has one. Toyota has the Yaris, the Corolla, the Prius, the Camry, the Avalon, and if you're some kind of lunatic, who for some insane reason wants a hydrogen fuel cell car, the Mirai. Again, for other auto manufacturers, sales in the same price/specs/form factor are split across five different models.

3. There's no reason to believe that five different Tesla sedan models are going to lead to anywhere close to 5x the demand. I mean, maybe if 4 of them are ICEs...

Model X sales are good compared to other luxury SUVs.

The idea that Tesla would be better off introducing ICEs is just insane. A quick way to bankruptcy (like all those other new domestic car makers who tried to start up the last ~100 years). People want the long-range, properly engineered EVs that Tesla makes. But I do realize you’re trolling.

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