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This is a wild guess, but from what I've seen Tumblr is picking up a lot of momentum. It's started to attract a pretty smart community and it's building steam. I don't know if it's a REPLACEMENT for Twitter, but it serves the same purpose but without the downtime.

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I've jumped on Plurk, and I like it a lot.

I just heard about Plurk. Funny. Looks like it's a new thing. I don't think it's going to last. Its problem is that it adds on complex, unneeded features to a simple idea.

That's what made Twitter so huge: its astounding simplicity. It lost points for being TOO simple and for having downtime, but that's what made it huge. Tumblr has that feel to it: that feeling that it's as simple as it can get, with a few exceptions. It's an exhilarating feeling.

Plurk doesn't have that. It feels to me like Twitter with clutter.

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