I currently research mental representation such as emotions in applied computing which is near-at-hand with ToM and although many of the theories seem intuitive, the replication crisis is something that really bothered me (since I come from a STEM background).
I will read through your post and definitely check the sources, thank you very much!
As for your last point, ToM+Autism might be one of the more interesting aspects of ToM research and as far as I can tell, we are far from conclusive theories.