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Comment by corodra | Hacker News Reader

I agree that global warming is real. Global warming is a problem. However...

> If the summer heat, followed by Hurricane Dorian, hasn’t convinced you that climate change is real, probably nothing will.

That's an amazingly stupid comment. This is why global warming deniers exist, because people make these types of stupid comments. A hurricane strengthening and stalling on land is not linked to global warming. It's always happened and always will. What was hurricane Andrew then in 1992? What about Katrina 2005? How about in 2004 where 4 hurricanes hit Florida in a 6 week time span? I lived through that one.

Hurricane Lorenzo, right now, is a better example due to where it's at in the Atlantic and its strength. Still not a great example, but better than Dorian. Dorian was technically a normal hurricane. Nothing that special or different. Devastating yes. But devastation is not an indicator of climate change. A higher number of hurricanes and higher than average number in Cat 4 and Cat 5. That's an indicator. And to be honest, this year has been pretty chill when it comes to hurricanes. Only one FL scare. Most years there are 3-5 scares by the end of September. We're only on L when it comes to named storms. Bad years in the past are around S by now. Hurricanes are named in order of the alphabet if you didn't know. In 2004, we went through the whole alphabet, plus some.

I agree global warming is happening. But this year's hurricane season does not show it.

View on HN

That's not at all why global warming deniers exist. The reason they exist is because the fossil fuel industry managed to make believing in climate change a political issue rather than a scientific one, which is why the denial is embraced by one party but not the other. The actual "arguments" don't matter, this one especially since it's impossible to tell if Dorian would've even existed or not had the climate not changed.

Okay, I do agree. But misinformation due to sloppy broad brush strokes does not help. At all. It fuels what you just said. It gives them "See, see! They're wrong about this! What do they know? They're just making stuff up for their agenda!" And to be honest, I have to agree with that statement. Because that first line of the article is simply a "the sky is falling because I say so" statement. And remember, I do agree that global warming is happening. But because I believe the science, I have to be fair on all factual statements. No matter if that fact helps or hurts me. I have to be fair.

It would have been smarter to talk about Alaska heat wave from the get-go that lasted, what was it, 7 to 9 days? I don't remember. That's WAY harder to dance around. Everyone can go "It got hot in Alaska? Weird... it got 90+ degrees hot? WTF? For how long? Holy shit!" Instead of a statement that amounted to "There was a hurricane in the Atlantic. Global warming is real."

You're right, and the comment from the article is definitely over the top. My only point is that sadly people would still be denying climate change no matter how perfectly presented the warnings are, and there's an obvious frustration, even anger, aimed at those responsible for this.

One thing that flat-earthers have taught me this past few years, you absolutely can't cure stupid. There will always be stupid ass people on the planet.

However, I do know rational people who don't believe in global warming. Mostly, to the degree of being fearful. They do believe that climate patterns do change. They believe the Earth can get hot. They just don't think in 2050 Florida is going to wash out like some predictions said a few years ago.

The reason, there's too many doomsayers that overblow claims or making mountains out of molehills. This article being one. This leads them to still stay on the fence or lean one way or the other. I'm generally a prudent individual. If I see potential problems ahead, I try to nip that problem in the bud. So even if I, hypothetically, didn't think we are on a crash course when it comes to global warming, I still think it would be good to make sure it never comes to that. Reversing the affects takes too long to let it happen. Best to curb CO2 production as soon as possible, just to be safe. But it's not handled like that at all. If I didn't have my own thoughts on the subject, I won't lie, I'd probably be a denier too. Too many global warming advocates have made some crazy claims with dates that never held up. They want to ban all these lifestyle activities that aren't even the low lying fruit. All in the name of "scaring people into action". That line of thought is archaic and dead. People don't function that way anymore. We need to try being rational about how we spread information. That way a majority of people who actually "change the world" and have "influence" agree and spread the word and ideas on making such change.

First we stop making bullshit claims on global warming. Then we can get people to fully wrap their heads around the real research. Which, I know sounds like a lot. But, it worked in Florida elementary schools. I argue Florida public environmental education (at least in the 90s) was a super effective program. It never overblew anything or made sweeping claims over little things. I remember well that they always said "Bad things could happen if we don't do anything", not will. So yea, maybe I'm bias. But I just know articles like these aren't helping. And sadly, people who believe in global warming because of articles like these, are weak in faith. The first to give up and do nothing.

I agree that all this fear-mongering is turning super counter-productive. While I do think we're in the middle of a climate crisis that is going to put a lot of lives at risk, I have to say that I've grown incredibly weary and tired of people constantly freaking out about it. I wish they would find a new angle: if you only make it about the negative, people will tune out because it's easier than dealing with it. If you make it about the positive, people will engage and work towards it because it's more attractive. And by positive I mean - the adoption of cleaner technologies will definitely impact our economy, and I think it will be for the better. Reducing waste can also impact our lifestyles, even with small changes, i.e. using waxed paper instead of plastic film to preserve food might make food taste better, etc etc Spin the whole "let's change our society to ensure our survival" in a positive way and there'll be a lot less climate change denial.

He's a professor of philosophy, not a climate or data scientist. Talking from a PPE perspective.

Misinformation requires intent. I'm not convinced there is any intent to deceive here. More likely he's not sufficiently up to speed with a data point not being a trend. Hopefully a scientist or reader will drop him a friendly email.

Global warming is a trend that can now, with thirty years of hindsight, be clearly identified. However, many people on both sides made lots of predictions that didn't come to pass, so some amount of skepticism towards certain more alarmist claims is warranted. It's too convenient to just lump any skepticism into the "denier" and "bad person" box, and that's exactly what happens.

It's also dishonest to point out that the fossil industry has a clear interest, while ignoring that the renewables industry also has such an interest. A lot of business is being made peddling non-solutions to a problem that might actually be unsolvable.

It's perfectly fair, however, to point out the difference in economic scale and political influence between the fossil fuel industry and the renewable energy industry. The fossil fuel industry is rather larger, and rather more powerful. And by "rather", I mean "tremendously".

It is also perfectly fair to point out the relative likelihood that international political problems around fossil fuels are far more likely to cost the US in blood and treasure than political problems around renewables. We don't go to war for wind and sunshine. Meanwhile, we spent hundreds of billions a year as a nation - not to mention a toll of American military and non-US civilian lives - in order to maintain our semblance of control over flow of oil.

You want to be honest? Sure, let's be honest.

The Green New Deal represents a $93 trillion subsidy to renewable energy, if it is enacted. That’s more than comparable.

Where are you getting this from? We don't have a Green New Deal. We don't have a firmed-up bill presented in Congress, even. And how is the number you offered calculated, and by whom? Because it reeks of partisanship.

It’s the only estimate I know of. Here’s a critical look at it: https://www.factcheck.org/2019/03/how-much-will-the-green-ne...

Seems to me that link more or less debunks the $93T estimate as partisan bullshit, which is what I expected it to be.

To put it in perspective, the GDP of the US is currently about $19T, so they're saying the Green New Deal would cost 100% of the GDP for five straight years. This seems... exaggerated.

> This seems... exaggerated.

Not if you understand MMT and its proponents. AOC believes that every dollar spent by the government on infrastructure magically turns into five dollars of economic growth, so she's willing to go into deep debt to make it happen.

Now that definitely sounds like partisan nonsense.

Perhaps, but it's true. AOC is a proponent of MMT[1] and has made that "five dollars for every one dollar spent" argument[2].

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-e...

[2] I can't find the source for this one right now, but it was in a video interview regarding the green new deal, right around when it was announced.

Adding on to this, the five dollars for every dollar spent makes sense in some contexts. It’s a key factor in support of federally funded basic research like NASA, NSF, DARPA, etc. I actually believe this based on the reports I’ve seen for NASA spin offs.

But what AOC is talking about is not basic research, which has a multiplicative effect because it opens up new technologies, new products, and new industries. A New Deal is work for works sake, and economically substitutive... so the return is actually less than a dollar for every dollar spent.

One side may have more "bribe money", but the other side has idealism behind it. That goes a long way.

Clearly, the climate apocalypse is what dominates the media narrative, so if you want to make money tomorrow (not yesterday), you're pushing renewables, not fossils.

Don't you recognize that your words are just as meaningful if the parties are switched? For example:

That's not at all why global warming alarmists exist. The reason they exist is because the green energy industry managed to make believing in climate change a political issue rather than a scientific one, which is why the alarmism is embraced by one party but not the other. The actual "arguments" don't matter, this one especially since it's impossible to tell if Dorian would've even existed or not had the climate not changed.

Perspective matters.

I'm not sure if the inverse is particularly meaningful as much as it is potentially rhetorically convincing, depending on what one wants to believe in the first place.

Anecdotally, most of the climate deniers I know (and am related to) also believe that Jesus is coming back soon, so fuck the environment, right?

> Anecdotally, most of the climate deniers I know (and am related to) also believe that Jesus is coming back soon, so fuck the environment, right?

No, that's a very caricatured interpretation of Christian theology about stewardship of the environment. But Christians are a convenient scapegoat, right?

That's the funny part to Christianity. You have the "Christians" that think "fuck the planet". But then you get the other side that believe we have to take care of the planet because it's a gift from God. Sadly, one has a largely voice than the other because the other congregation is busy coordinating and conducting community litter pick-up events.

> Sadly, one has a largely voice than the other because the other congregation is busy coordinating and conducting community litter pick-up events.

No, one has a louder voice than the other because that one is a convenient fig leaf used to put the imprint of the cross on the self-interest of the Mammon-worshipping economic elites.

The other is also politically active as well as involved in direct action, but money is volume in political discourse, and the side serving money has more of it.

I also noticed that pattern with the refugee crisis in 2015. The biggest party by votes in Germany is the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of Angela Merkel. Merkel was initially willing to take in refugees but then backpedaled by not saying anything on the topic anymore. Meanwhile, all the other CDU politicians (ministers, members of parliament etc.) all called for restricting the intake of refugees as much as possible. At the time, I quipped to myself and my friends that they better take the "C" out of their name since AFAIK helping those in need is part of the proverbial "loving thy neighbor" teached by Christianity. That was only a quip but I've since heard some lower-ranking CDU politicians voice the same concerns. Same with climate change: "How can we claim to be a Christian party when we care so little about honoring God's creation?"

(Disclaimer: I'm not Christian and cannot claim any authority on how to interpret the Bible. I would most likely count as agnostic or optimistic nihilist.)

> At the time, I quipped to myself and my friends that they better take the "C" out of their name since AFAIK helping those in need is part of the proverbial "loving thy neighbor" teached by Christianity.

You did admit that you're not a Christian and haven't studied theology or interpretation, which is fair of you. So let me ask a few simple questions which demonstrate the necessity of interpretation and the diversity of views on the topic:

Who are your neighbors? Are they the people in the house next door? Are they the people in the nation across the border? Should you help the people across the border at the expense of the people next door? If so, to what extent? If you decline to let into your country every foreigner who wants in, but offer to help them by other means, are you failing to honor the command to love your neighbor?

Why does "love your neighbor" necessarily mean "admit to your nation every foreigner who wants in, and freely give them everything they want, otherwise you're violating the command"?

It quickly becomes clear that such demands are, at best, based on a very shallow theology, and at worst, deception by those who couldn't care less about any religion.

> No, that's a very caricatured interpretation of Christian theology about stewardship of the environment.

It's a quite accurate view of the particular views expressed by plenty of climate change deniers; there are more robust sets of Christian beliefs about stewardship of the environment, but they don't tend to coexist with vocal climate denial.

Your use of weasel words like "plenty of" and "tend to" shows that this is just your biased impression, not necessarily representative of actual populations. As well, your characterization of people who disagree with you using the pejoratives "deniers" and "denial" shows your extreme bias toward one side of the issue.

In other words, you're not considering the issue fairly.

That's right: when you can't answer, just downvote. If you didn't have 66,000 karma, maybe you'd be held accountable by the mods for religious and political flamewars. But since you do, you can act however you please.

Meaningful, maybe? The green energy industry was tiny when the original science around global warming was done. I don't see how they would have the power to do that.

Plus you would have to actually show some evidence.

You only have a point if you're someone who believes climate change isn't happening. Otherwise switching the words around as you did only shows how ridiculous opposite side is.

Actually it does not.

Converting an scientific issue into a political (or better say an emotional) one is only needed if the science does not support your side.

Therefore it makes sense for deniers to move from a scientific discussion (which has largely been lost) to a political/emotional one, where things are more flexible and a good presented bad argument might still enable you to win.

So why should the "green energy industry" move the debate from a science driven (which pretty much supports their argument) to a political one?

You're falling into the same trap. Your words also work from the other perspective:

Therefore it makes sense for alarmists to move from a scientific discussion (which has largely been lost) to a political/emotional one, where things are more flexible and a good presented bad argument might still enable you to win.

This very submission is an example of the alarmists doing that.

There are none so blind...

Only under the premise that there is no large scientific consensus.

Did you read about the 500 scientists who wrote a letter to the U.N. a few days ago indicating just that?

Well, you probably didn't, because the mainstream media didn't cover it. You'll have to search for it. Up to you.

From [1]:

> And while some outlets described the co-signers as experts in climate science, most are not. As noted in an analysis below, a significant portion of the co-signers are either engineers or professionals in non-technical fields. Only 10 identified themselves as climate scientists.

So 10! climate scientists argue against climate change? Still looks like there is an overwhelming support for it in science.

[1] https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/letter-signed-by-500-...

Ah, gatekeeping, how convenient.

1. Invent a pseudoscientific field.

2. Make normative, political claims from said field.

3. When people outside the field express dissent, invent a non-profit to "verify the credibility of influential claims," and only allow people in said field to join said non-profit and verify the credibility of said claims: https://sciencefeedback.co/for-scientists/

> To Apply: You need to have a PhD in a relevant discipline, have at least one published article in a peer-reviewed scientific journal within the last four years in the field they are commenting on.

To criticize climate science, you must first become a climate scientist, which requires assenting to the belief in the validity of climate science, because anyone who dissents from that belief would not be awarded a PhD in the field nor have peer-reviewed articles published in it.

So only people who agree with them are allowed to criticize them. Hm, sounds a lot like HN. And so scientific! I'm convinced, thanks for the link.

Funny enough, worst hurricane in recorded history (according to some metrics) happened in 1935!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

That statement seems accurate to me, but there's a lot wrapped up with it. What should have convinced people, decades ago, is the combination of well-attested theory and numerous lines of evidence. Anybody capable of being convinced -- which is to say, able to understand science and not ideologically blinded to it -- has needed no subsequent convincing.

There are a lot of people who don't fit that category, and if they are to be persuaded at all, it won't be by the means that are used to convince the scientifically literate. For the illiterate, they might well be tipped by one summer's weather or one hurricane's damage. That's bad science, but the voting booth doesn't care whether your reasons are sound or not. The New York Times is reporting on policy as well as science: what people are going to choose to do.

In that sense the statement is accurate. Those capable of being convinced by science are convinced; those who are moved by incorrect evidence have just received a big wad of it. The only ones who haven't reached the correct conclusion are driven by ideology, and won't be convinced by any evidence.

We can bemoan the fact that so much of policy is decided on bad grounds, but that seems to be a fact of life. Most people don't understand science, and manufactured doubt can be used to sway them from the conclusions reached by science. If you care about getting things done in a democracy, you have to take them into account.

That doesn't justify using the science badly, but that's not what's happening here. They're just reporting on the mechanisms by which people have reached their conclusions.

>the combination of well-attested theory and numerous lines of evidence

One time, I saw a graph of temperature over time. That's it. Nobody has ever tried to show me any other theory or evidence. Has anyone ever tried publicizing the science? I take issue with the "science has failed so now we have to be irrational" story because I am not convinced that the science has ever been tried.

Some skeptically-inclined people see the paucity of actual scientific argument you cite here and interpret it as, "Please don't look too closely at the science." In fairness, most of the argument is based on complicated simulations, and that's just not going to convince everyone.

Whatever convinced the climatologists that the simulations were right should convince everyone else.

That's pretty non-specific... what is the antecedent of "whatever"?

>Anybody capable of being convinced -- which is to say, able to understand science and not ideologically blinded to it -- has needed no subsequent convincing.

I don't think this is an accurate characterization of things. Most people I know believe in climate change, but very few of them could cite any facts or graphs or science that convinced them really. They believe it because people on tv who they trust told them it was true.

I'm not saying this is bad, we should trust experts on topics without expecting every single member of the population to get bogged down in the gritty details. I myself do believe in climate change and vote for democrats. That said, it annoys me when people act like everyone who believes in climate change is a genius who knows science and isn't blinded by ideology while the deniers are cavemen or religious zealots too dumb to get it. Like it or not, it has become a political issue and people on both sides are largely just following their own side, not looking deeply into the findings and methods of scientific studies to decide for themselves if they agree with the researchers.

  If the summer heat, followed by Hurricane Dorian, 
  hasn’t convinced you that climate change is real, 
  probably nothing will.

I was stunned that such a callous, dismissive & low quality statement would even pass muster at The Grey Lady.

Who's proof-reading these pieces?

Pair it with a striking statistic from a reputable source, at the very least if youre going to make such a naked statement. Who is the piece trying to convince? The already convinced and dyed-in-the-wool card carrying eco-enthusiasts or the unconvinced and the leery crowd?

If I may turn a phrase: If this NYT article hasn't convinced you that climate change propaganda is real, and that the NYT is not a reputable source, probably nothing will.

> If the summer heat, followed by Hurricane Dorian, hasn’t convinced you that climate change is real, probably nothing will.

Saying that is as dumb as saying global warming isn't real because there's still snow in winter.

I think the point of bringing up hurricane Dorian is the size/strength. It's not unique by itself but cat 4/5's are at an upward trend[1]. Also take a look at hurricane Barry[2] this year. It's a disturbance that came out of the continental US, became a hurricane in the gulf, and came back to strike the US.

[1] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/pix/user_images... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Barry_(2019)#/media/...

Big problem with that chart. Look where it ends. 2006. It looks like an upward trend. If you add the last decade it's missing, that trend won't exist. You know what, let put that together in BI really quick. I want to see if that trend holds true since it's missing the past decade of data.

Here is a larger timescale. Headings link to charts.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

Taking a look at the data, it's not that damning. Our upward swing really started in 1995 and hasn't increased since. 2005 was an outlying year, and the rest really aren't that much of a big deal. No real upward swing since 95.

I will say our hurricane floor count is higher on average by 2-3. I have a hard time believing there were zero hurricanes some years. Meteorology and aeronautics really was useless before the 60s (compared to today). So, numbers before then are hard to take seriously and are probably understated.

Our 5 year average of storms is trending down (slightly) since 08 as well. 10 year average peaked in 05 and has dropped since 2012.

My grand point, hurricanes right now don't make good evidence for global warming. There are far better evidence points and general scientific knowledge about greenhouse gases. Using hurricane statistics is only going to lead to ammo for deniers as they don't pay attention to better evidence. Will hurricanes potentially intensify in both volume and strength? It's definitely possible if ocean temperatures rise on average. That's how hurricanes are "fueled". But right now, we don't have good evidence of that being a truth.

>This is why global warming deniers exist, because people make these types of stupid comments.

Oh, this is why they exist? Or is this just a convenient excuse?

Either way 'some people don't make sense when describing X' is not a good reason to reject X.

To be fair to anyone that denies something, if they don't directly observe it, why should they believe it? Especially if they have to alter their day to day lives around that statement? The media makes contradictory sweeping claims time and time again over small bits of data. Why should anyone believe "the science" they pose? With the media being the leaders of dialogue, why should people believe in something that alter's their day-to-day practice? I'm not even getting into the fossil-fuel fueled propaganda. Just a human nature perspective. Not being able to observe an action/event is meant to be suspect rather than held as doctrine.

Again, I'm not saying global warming is a lie. I know it's real. Not a belief or held in faith. Just knowing. But part of the discourse as to why people don't believe it, I see from articles like the NYT article. It's just a realistic stance on the issue. Articles like these give zero benefit. Even those who believe in global warming are arguing against this article in HN. It definitely won't bring the deniers into the light.

If you're looking to the media to provide a unified narrative on anything, you're on a fools errand.

Fundamentally, the ability to understand the world involved critical thinking. The types of things we see from global warming deniers tends to be a kind of faux critical thought. Find some nugget of information that supports your cause, cling to it, and definitely do not attempt to gain some sort of comprehensive understanding of the subject.

This is understandable in one sense - the world is extremely complicated, and one cannot form a deep understanding of all the things they need to interact with.

The problem is people compensate for this by bullshitting themselves into believing they have some sort of understanding of said complex topic without putting in any of the work required to actually understand it.

I don't know what the real name for it, but talking about 'the media' has become sort of like a code smell to me. "The media" doesn't exist as a unified thing, and that's almost certainly a good thing. Instead of being a useful phrase, it becomes a wild card for assigning responsibility for whatever the source thinks is wrong with the world.

I would suggest using something other than hurricanes (at least those in the Atlantic basin) as evidence of global warming. The existing observations aren't good for the support of global warming at this point [1].

To help aide in convincing more skeptics I would suggest observations that have held up under scrutiny.

[1] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Correct me if I'm wrong. What happened in Alaska, that heat wave, was BEYOND normal. Not by a little, but by a lot. They crushed a whole bunch of heat records that week, right?

Wouldn't that be the best poster child of global warming taking affect for at least 2019 (thus far)?

No. There's scientific consensus on aggregate warming and overall destabilization of weather patterns. So we can say that generally speaking we'll have a higher chance of beating previous temperature records going forward.

That doesn't work the other way around when looking at single weather events.

Yes, yes, weather and climate are two different things. It's like the analogy between a dog and a person walking the dog. The dog (weather) might weave all around in different crazy directions, but the human (climate) is the path you should be looking at.

The Alaska heatwave was a decent symptom of the general change in climate, no? At least in better respects than a hurricane.

Can you please reconcile this statement:

Dorian was technically a normal hurricane.

with the following

[The Labor Day Hurricane] was tied with Hurricane Dorian for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane by maximum sustained winds, with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) at landfall

Or if not, at lease please stop calling people "stupid" for bringing up Dorian as an indication that perhaps we should be concerned about increasing frequency of severe tropical storms?

This natgeo article seems to disagree with you, claiming that higher upper ocean temps allowed Dorian to maintain a greater intensity than it would have otherwise while stalled over the Bahamas. Higher temps also contributed to Dorians overall strength. You make many arguments about prevalence but I’m not seeing that mentioned by others as a link to global warming, only peak intensity which absolutely is rising and absolutely contributed to Dorians overall devastation. More info here:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/how-w...

Why is this comment downvoted? I’ve only been on HN for a few weeks but I’m constantly get downvoted when trying to act in good faith and engage in discussions. What am I doing wrong? It’s becoming frustrating, since none of these downvoters bother to explain what led them to downvote my comment in the first place.

It's downvoted because some random user with >=500 karma didn't like it and clicked the down arrow. That's all downvoting means here. There are no ethics for voting here.

In effect, voting is simply a measure of whether random HN users were pleased or displeased by your comment.

And you're not allowed to mention it, either. If your perfectly reasonable and polite comment gets downvoted to invisibility by random, angry users who won't tolerate diversity of opinion, then suck it up, comrade, and learn to please the hivemind--no complaining!

Of course, certain very-high-karma users can get away with saying things that would be flagged and downvoted to death if said by anyone else.

And that's what HN wants voting to be. Welcome to HN. Enjoy your stay, if you can.

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