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I always assumed their business model was "Stay afloat till $BIG_CORP acquires us".

I think that is still the business model. The $7 /mo for enterprise is the "Stay Afloat until..." part of that business model

It's obvious to me that Microsoft will end up buying NPM Inc.

Why? They already own Github which is about to reduce NPM to “feature, not product” status

Why did Facebook buy WhatsApp, or Oracle buy Peoplesoft?

Typically: to enhance their offerings, remove a competitor, or shut it down.