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Comment by sabat | Hacker News Reader

Some people say it's a bubble. I'm thinking/hoping it's more on the lines of a Renaissance.

At least some of those companies have actually turned a profit and stand a chance of maintaining one. I have my doubts about Groupon's and Zynga's medium-to-long-term chances, but I've been wrong before.

there's going to be a lot of young, early employees that are able to cash out

Early employees will probably not be able to cash out for at least six months; that's the standard waiting period after an IPO. Ironically, people who get friends-and-family deals pre-IPO are the most likely to get rich quickly (if they sell on an early uptick).

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I have every confidence that Zynga will succeed. Don't get me wrong, I hate them with a passion, but they are incredibly smart and have a very successful model. Their games are built to be addictive, not fun. They've taken everything that made people lose months of their lives to WoW and condensed it, according to recognized psychological principles. They're cynical, but they'll manage to succeed regardless of what gets thrown their way.

The problem Zynga has right now is that they're building a reputation as a 'not fun place to work' for engineers. This probably won't kill them, since their power comes from psychology more than technology, but it might hurt them.

To be honest, they don't really need engineers. All of their products could be easily outsourced.

I disagree, their datawarehousing efforts are enormous and key to their success. I seriously doubt they would trust another company with this.

On the other hand they're almost entirely dependent on another platform (albeit one that has a vested interest in their success), some of their most successful promotions are the sorts of things likely to attract the attention of legislators (e.g. reverse SMS billing to minors, often of "free" services; not to mention a simulated gambling app), and their offerings lack the enjoyment factor that ensures longevity. Also, the only real barrier to competitors eating up their market share is Zynga's willingness to throw more money at ads. I figure they'd do well in an IPO but they don't sound like the best long term bet.

Tamagotchis were highly addictive and demanding of attention in their heyday.

They've taken everything that made people lose months of their lives to WoW and condensed it

They've taken one aspect of WoW, the one everyone talks about and the single most addictive quality -- I agree. But people stay with WoW for more reasons than that. People who get addicted to leveling up get over that addiction sooner or later, and usually sooner.

Zynga is a one-trick pony, so far. That's why I have doubts about its long-term viability. Unless it comes up with something based on another paradigm or makes the games more interesting, they will lose the momentum they've got and crumble. You can't fool all the people all the time.

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