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Given how hidden opt-out settings tend to be, yes. If the user has to opt in explicitly, it’s much less likely they’ll consent unintentionally.

In practice it will be a dull button saying “$12 plan” and a bright shiny button saying “$2 DISCOUNT” with everything else in fine print.

Yep, people are generally lazy. Having something be two steps instead of one make a big difference on your overall conversion rate.

Probably. Loss aversion may make the user more likely want to recover $2 rather than pay $2 to upgrade to tracking-free versions.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

Yeah, the latter seems like it would involve more bureaucracy than the former. I don't want to sound fatalistic, but I cannot shake off the feeling that it was almost definitely intended.