> Empirically, about 90% of the compounds that start at that first level fail to make it to the last level
That would be an incredible rate of success, depending on what 'first level' means. If you mean "reached human clinical trials", maybe, but dunno.
> It also seems that academia is not any better than pharmaceuticals at either developing the first step or pushing something to the end.
"it also seems" lacks rigour, but let that pass for now.
If academia develops 85% of the drugs that are released (I'll try to find a source for that, it's from memory) then the vast majority of failure costs (85% of them) are soaked up by the taxpayer. The few that are bought up by the drugs companies, are then sold privately. Very profitable.
"According to BBC News, in 2013 pharmaceutical companies enjoyed higher average profit margins than carmakers, oil and gas companies and media companies. Only banks had a profit margin comparable to Big Pharma, but Pfizer’s 42% profit margin blew every other company out of the water, prompting even a member of its own industry to say, “I wouldn’t be able to justify [those types of margins].”
In 2013, five pharmaceutical companies exceeded 20% profit margins: Pfizer, Hoffman-LaRoche, AbbVie, GSK and Eli Lilly."
from https://www.andruswagstaff.com/blog/big-pharma-has-higher-pr...