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Comment by bobbylarrybobby | Hacker News Reader

Which is more likely: aliens have arrived on Earth with extraterrestrial vehicles from (likely) light years away, and have allowed themselves to be spotted by terrestrial aircraft; or, militaries with huge budgets and some of the smartest scientists and engineers in the world have designed incredible vehicles that have been kept secret even from members of their own military?

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While the latter is more likely given that our governments have done exactly this in the past, there are some reasons to believe that if aliens were to warm up to the idea of contacting us, it might be pretty soon.

We have global communication networks now and are rapidly approaching AGI. For all we know we could be on the verge of a critical inflection point for our civilization that might make it worthwhile to interfere.

Also, the idea that we've been under quarantine up until now is a pretty compelling explanation for the Fermi paradox.

> rapidly approaching AGI

We are as far away from that as we were when we were banging rocks together in caves, IMHO

> For all we know

And, we do know we're about to hit a point of no return in terms of climate and the viability of the civilization.

What about crafts that were sighted doing the same maneuvers in the 1940s and 50s? The obvious answer to your question is "latter", but the obviousness deteriorates as you look into historic occurrences.

Are we sure that previous sightings are related to modern sightings? If they are then they went up massively in frequency based on reports from pilots, though that might make sense simply due to improvements in our technology.

Both are possible. The latter is more likely in a textbook epistemological sense because we know black budget military vehicles exist while we don't have any proof aliens exist.

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