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While I broadly agree with your point, movie popularity is not random. Your own post contradicts this point:

> What you do is play it as safe as humanly possible. You don't take any chances.

How would it be possible to "play it safe" if movie popularity was random?

You make certain that even a 'failure' can break even, and make it so that a success gets milked for all its worth. While you can't increase the chances of a win, you can affect the payout, essentially.

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